Katya Adler has a good Twitter thread about the state of the negotiations (see below) which if anything, appear to be going backwards. Talks are continuing in Brussels this week - ending tomorrow - on fish and LPF/governance, the issues which have proved troublesome from the beginning. She says each side blames the other for not covering these matters from the outset but since we set the timetable we can hardly blame them for the lack of time, or using the clock against us.
Here's her thread;
Clearly no Brexit trade deal ready by 15 Oct as the PM has wanted BUT talks continue apace. This week in Brussels (Monday to Wednesday) focussing on fish and level playing field (including governance) in particular /1
— Katya Adler (@BBCkatyaadler) October 12, 2020
She says EU states are still concerned about the LPF rules and while recognising the UK isn't going to sign up to the EU regime, they are insisting on at least Britain signing up to mutually agreed norms/principles on state aid, environment, labour regulations etc. Brussels is also insisting on a "robust dispute mechanism" (especially after the UKIM Bill surprise) to take "swift, weighty legal action" if treaty terms are breached by either side.
This may be rather worse than agreeing to EU rules since the "action" will include retaliatory measures that could impact whatever sector or sectors the EU choose. We would surely be more of a vassal by having to agree almost everything - not just on state aid but also on environmental, employment and social issues - with the EU commission for fear of economic damage. It would lock in uncertainty forever.
Another thread comes from Anton Spisak (Tony Blair institute) which moves the point on quite a bit. He says the UK objects to the EU' using "autonomous measures" as a safeguard, one of which is enable each side to be able to use "unilateral remedies if, and when, there are risks of trade distortion from potentially unfair subsidies."
His thread is here:
Interesting piece on the EU doubling down on its ask for "tough enforcement measures" in the Brexit deal. What are these "enforcement measures"? How "tough" are they? And, why does the EU want them from the UK?(Thread on the latest in the Brexit negs) https://t.co/TdbgV0bGov— Anton Spisak (@AntonSpisak) October 12, 2020
This idea of unilateral measures if a breach is even suspected is unusual apparently. Typically in trade dispute one side is able to retaliate only once there's a proven breach of agreed rules (usually after there's a dispute and a decision by arbitration).
Spisak says we have been arguing that this is wrong and the arbitration mechanism should apply. BUT and here's the problem, in his words:
"This was a robust position until the UK undermined its own argument here with the Internal Market Bill. It took a unilateral measure in domestic law (call it a 'safety net') to take a precaution against 'extreme and irrational' EU action. Just what the UK now argues against."
So, the UKIM bill not only stiffened EU resolve to demand more guarantees, it undermined our own arguments about why unilateral measures should not be allowed. We have shot ourselves in the foot again.
Separately, the Business Secretary Alok Sharma has written or is writing to 600,000 businesses telling them to get ready for 1 January. His letter is HERE. I assume most if not all are struggling with coronavirus and are on their knees financially (what Sharma calls 'challenging times') but his letter shows absolutely zero sympathy:
"I know these are challenging times, however it is vital that your business prepares now for our new relationship with the EU, outside of the single market and customs union.
"There are 80 days until the end of the transition period and there will be no extension, so you need to act now. Regardless of whether we reach a trade agreement with the EU, from 1 January there will be guaranteed changes to: the way businesses import and export goods, the process for hiring people from the EU and the way businesses provide services in EU markets"
And one can easily see where the blame for any disruption is going to go, for he goes on:
"Unless you take action, there is a risk business operations will be interrupted. You should also check with your suppliers and customers that they are taking action.
"Businesses will play an essential role in ensuring a smooth end to the transition period, and the government and I will be there to support you as we embark on the UK’s new start."
Note the "unless you take action." Remember, most industries and sectors of the economy do not want Brexit and can see no advantages in it, only extra costs and delays, more paperwork and bureaucracy and all the Business Secretary can tell them is that the government will "support you as we embark on the UK's new start." I suppose it must be like being thrown under a bus with the promise of long-term hospital care afterwards.
As if things were not bad enough and getting worse by the day, it was revealed last night that SAGE, the group of wise men advising the government on the pandemic, said after their meeting on 21 September that tighter restrictions were needed. Yesterday, Johnson announces what amounts to a watered down version of the measures SAGE wanted applied three weeks ago!! This when time is vital if lives are not to be lost.
The government's handling of coronavirus has been woeful with complicated, mixed messages and piecemeal measures applied arbitrarily and invariably late. This has given us a terrible record among European nations with easily the worst overall figures. Now case numbers and hospital admissions are rising fast again. The CMO, Chris Whitty, openly said he is not confident (nobody is, he added) that even the highest tier 3 level of restrictions are enough to quell the second wave.
Make no mistake this is a massive gamble, under pressure from Tory MPs to avoid more economic damage. If it all goes wrong we will be in the middle of a national lockdown in a few weeks and hurtling towards the no deal Brexit cliff edge. The government will be overwhelmed.
If Johnson is forced to request an extension he is going to look even more stupid than he normally does and the ERG will go spare, and the businesses that Sharma is urging to prepare because "there will be no extension" will be even angrier.