Kier Starmer is to make a speech later today setting out his vision for Brexit's future. In the way of these things we already know what he will say before he's uttered a word, courtesy of all the national newspapers being given an embargoed copy of the speech. The FT headline summarises it as: Labour ready to fight Boris Johnson over effects of Brexit, says Keir Starmer, sub title: Opposition leader to set out 5-point plan to tackle economic pain caused by UK’s exit from EU. This may or may not be politically smart, time will tell. The 'five-point' plan is said to include "a veterinary deal to end onerous agri-food checks, mutual recognition of conformity certificates, a quick deal on NI Protocol, moves to make short-term business trips and music tours easier and a security pact."
How easy it all sounds, eh? I wonder if the EU are even ready to re-open talks aimed at fiddling around and giving the UK stuff it wants like mutual recognition of conformity assessments. As far as I know they specifically ruled this out as unnecessary for a market on its own doorstep.
There is still a strange belief that the EU is like a market stall with various 'deals' on display for would-be partners to pick from. A better analogy is, in my opinion, a family get together with tables laid out for family members to enjoy behind closed doors. You don't expect oiks to wander in off the street and start helping themselves. But this is what we think we can do.
If I was in Brussels it would be quite irritating to read this in a member state who recently flounced out.
But who knows it might get Starmer into No 10. Is it wise and is it realistic I don't know but I assume they have their own polling to support the move. His policy chief is said to be a Brexiteer, although I don't know who he is.
However, the FT also point to a recent poll which suggests folks are not that happy with Brexit, viz:
"An Ipsos UK study found last week the proportion of Britons who think Brexit has made their daily life worse has risen from 30 per cent in June 2021 to 45 per cent; only 17 per cent said their lives had been made better."
But even more than that, YouGov last week published the
latest in the series of 212 polls asking if, in hindsight Brexit was a mistake. The gap is now 14 per cent, the biggest ever since August 2016.
The 36% who still think it was the right decision is at the lowest I have ever seen and it is now falling steadily as you can see from the graph:
The fieldwork for this survey can be found
HERE. If I compare it to to the very first survey in August 2016, I can see there has been a substantial fall in support for Brexit among leave votes. In the beginning 94% of leave voters thought it was RIGHT, now that is down to 77%.
Meanwhile among 18-24 year olds, only 5% think it was right, while 62% say it was wrong. In 2016, 22% thought it was right. There are significant falls.
So, while Starmer's speech may be politically clever, he is swimming against a turning tide and the currents will only get stronger as the UK economy slips into stagflation and a possible recession.
On Saturday, I posted about the UK economy and the storm clouds that are gathering. Later the same day, The Telegraph published a piece by their assistant editor Jeremy Warner, making very similar points but pointing to a more apocalyptic end:
We are on track for a currency crisis – and bankruptcy.
Warner says:
"Taking back control also means taking back responsibility, and yet our Brexiting Government doesn’t seem to have grasped the fact. The remorseless logic of Brexit is that of the small state, low tax economy, yet we seem headed in the opposite direction. Uncorrected, our present trajectory can only end in a currency crisis and bankruptcy.
"To finance a trade deficit of the current size, and eventually bring it back into balance, you need to attract a lot of foreign investment. You do not go about this task by whacking up income tax, corporation tax, and other forms of business taxation. Let’s hope that we don’t require another mega crisis for this brutal truth to sink in."
His piece is about the trade deficit and the need to finance it. The gap is running at £100 billion a year and we need investors to keep sending money here one way or another (usually by buying up assets like utility companies) otherwise the pound will just keep sinking.
As he says, you don't do this by "whacking up income tax, corporation tax, and other forms of business taxation" but neither do you do it by exiting the EU and effectively shrinking your market by 85 per cent. He doesn't mention that, I assume because he's not allowed to.
He says the "remorseless logic" of Brexit is a small state low tax economy. Is that likely? Did voters have that in mind when they voted in June 2016? I am not sure Britain is ready, industrially, economically, psychologically, socially or politically to become Singapore on Thames.
Neither am I convince it ever will be.
And a few days ago the FT ran a long article about Germany - hardly a low tax, low regulation economy - and what it called:
The surprising revival of eastern Germany. The sub heading is
, Once a byword for economic decline, the region is being transformed into the centre of Europe’s electric car industry.
There is massive investment going in to places in East Germany by foreign and German investors who don't appear to be put off by high taxes. he availability of a hard-working, well educated workforce and direct access to a market of 500 million of the richest consumers on the planet must help a bit.
What makes the UK different?
