Wednesday 30 October 2024

Trump: sorry is the hardest word

Donald Trump is an exceptionally stupid person, as must be obvious to any sentient observer. If he hadn’t been given $400 million by his father, he would probably have ended up working for the mob and served time in jail. As it is, he’s in a tight race for the presidency and could easily find himself back in The White House in January. Alternatively, he could be in a cell on Riker’s Island. Given his desperate position, most candidates would try to expand his potential appeal among the centre ground of politics, independents and right-leaning Democrats.

This is how Bill Clinton and Obama both managed two terms and how Blair won a landslide in Britain in 1997. Clinton referred to the strategy as 'triangulation' where you deliberately adopt policies that appeal to your opponent's base in order to maximise your own vote. This is not rocket science.

But Trump isn’t doing that. In fact, he’s doing the exact opposite, doubling down on his already extreme policies and upsetting the groups and sections of US society that he desperately needs to get him over the line. We’re lucky he’s as stupid as he is. If he had a couple more brain cells he would be even more dangerous.

The latest campaign gaffe came at a Republican campaign rally in Madison Square Garden which many commentators are comparing to one which took place in 1939 in support of Adolph Hitler and the Nazis.  One of the warm-up acts was the 'comedian' Tom Hinchcliffe who delivered a series of barely racial tropes including describing Puerto Rico as a "floating island of garbage."

Puerto Rico isn't a US state but a self-governing territory in the Caribbean effectively under US control and protection. It has 3.2 million residents and they have been legally recognised as US citizens since 1917, although they have no right to vote in federal elections unless they actually live in a US state.  And nearly 6 million do. They are the second largest Hispanic group in America after Mexicans.

Trump needs their votes, particularly in swing states. Almost half a million Puerto Ricans live in Pennsylvania for example, amounting to nearly 4% of the population. Florida has over a million, over 5% of the population. 

The Bishop of Puerto Rico has written to Trump demanding an apology:

In response, not only has he refused to apologise, he says he can't imagine it's a 'big deal' and claims, as usual, that he did more for Puerto Rico than anybody that's ever been president!!

The Republicans can't garner any more support from the extreme right. That seam is exhausted and they're actually losing moderate supporters on the left of the party, but still his campaign persists in the same demonising of minorities and denigrating of 'others'. 

In 2016 Trump won nearly 63 million votes nationally. Hilary Clinton attracted 65.8 million but lost the electoral college.  In 2020, he increased that to over 74 million. Biden won because he managed to get 81 million, almost a 25% surge over Clinton. It looked like an anti-Trump election.

After Trump's attempt to violently overturn the result in 2021 and following various trials, he is now a convicted felon and confirmed sexual predator, and with more serious legal challenges coming up - for insurrection and treason. The question is will he get more votes than 2020?  Somehow I doubt it.

The only thing Democrats have to do is get the 81 million voters who supported Biden in 2020 to come out again.

If Trump loses by a small margin it will be because he simply can't say sorry.


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