Tuesday, 31 December 2024

Trump's coalition is splintering already

Donald Trump is facing the same problem that the Tories ran into over Brexit. He and his supporters could all agree during the campaign on what they didn’t want (open borders, US involvement in overseas conflicts, tax revenues wasted, a rising national debt, etc) but now they need to agree on what it is that they do want, and therein is the problem. It's blindingly obvious that Trump has never had any detailed policy discussions with any of his appointees. The first major arguments are developing over the use of H-1B visas for speciality occupations, or highly skilled migrants.

Trump's MAGA base are furious that Elon Musk is pressing for MORE H-1B visas with the clear implication that Americans are only fit for menial, low-paid jobs.  Musk has used a lot of these visas for his US businesses in the past because he can employ highly qualified people for a pittance and more importantly, they're tied to the job and must leave the USA if they quit:

Twitter today would literally not run if not for workers who are essentially H1B hostages.

One of Musk's most vociferous critics is Laura Loomer, a right-wing influencer and podcaster who helped during the campaign and even flew in Trump's private plane. She has now been suspended from Twitter, which Musk owns as we know:

EXCLUSIVE: Elon Musk has suspended MAGA influencer Laura Loomer after she spent the entire day yesterday calling him out over his support for H1B visas.

It's now being reported that Tesla (which Musk also owns) laid off 15,000 workers in April this year mostly concentrated in Texas and California, where Tesla has more workers than anywhere else, while at the same time, official data shows the company requested over 2,000 H-1B visas.  Imagine the world's wealthiest man trying to get a $56bn payday from Tesla while cutting staff numbers and the salaries of the rest. What does that say about him?

Loomer and other MAGA supporters are not happy. Trump, who also uses H-1B visas has backed Musk - for the moment.  It remains to be seen what he actually does once in power.

Another potential flashpoint is Musk's contacts with Putin and China.  Apart from his political activities and consumer businesses, Musk is also a significant defence contractor and there are serious concerns that he is compromised and a serious risk to US security:

A three-star U.S. Army general thinks that Elon Musk’s foreign business relationships could make him a significant threat to national security.

Don't forget this is a man known to use Ketamine, a drug that can cause agitation; panic attacks; damage to short- and long-term memory and depression, if taken frequently, which he apparently does. 

Musk also apparently has an alter-ego which he uses on Twitter. Many people are convinced Adrian Dittman and Elon Musk are in fact the same person.  If true, it makes you wonder about this next tweet:

“Adrian Dittman” is Elon Musk, let this tweet sink in.

Bizarre, eh?

Meanwhile, a video has emerged of Trump's choice as Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth in May 2016 calling for the USA to become "the world's sheriff." I don't know how that squares with Trump's call to avoid foreign entanglements.

It all demonstrates how important political parties are. Arguments over policy are thrashed out in private. Trump's cabinet is a hotch-potch of opinion that only agrees on three-word slogans. Watch out for plenty more of this in the weeks and months ahead.

To govern is to choose.

Finally, there is an interesting article (HERE No £) by the FT’s Gideon Rachman, looking at what the coming Trump presidency means for the world, where he quotes John Ikenberry of Princeton University, a leading theorist of international relations:

"...a revisionist state has arrived on the scene to contest the liberal international order . . . it is the United States. It’s Trump in the Oval Office, the beating heart of the free world.”

Ikenberry claims Trump is poised to contest “almost every element of the liberal international order — trade, alliances, migration, multilateralism, solidarity between democracies, human rights”.

Note he doesn’t even mention climate change where Trump is the leading denier.

Ivo Daalder of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs agrees: “Every talk I’ve ever given on the geopolitical risks that we face in the world started with China and Russia, but the biggest risk is us. It’s America.”

Rachman offers five possible scenarios for the next four years:

A new great power bargain: Trump’s transactional nature, his determination to avoid war and his contempt for democratic allies leads the US to strike a new grand bargain with Russia and China. 

War by accident: The Western allies have a trade war with each other that eventually leads to military conflict.

Anarchy in a leaderless world: The US, China, Russia and the EU avoid direct conflict. But Trump’s America First policies on trade, security and international institutions create a leadership vacuum.

Globalisation without America: The US retreats behind tariff walls and leaves the WTO (World Trade Organization). Prices rise in America and goods get more shoddy. 

America First succeeds: Trump’s faith in the irresistible nature of American power is vindicated. Investment is driven to the US, increasing America’s lead in tech and finance. The Europeans and Japanese sharply increase spending on their own defence and this is enough to deter Russian and Chinese aggression. American tariffs dramatically reduce Chinese growth, sending the Chinese system into crisis. 

Rachman thinks the next four years is likely to be some "strange amalgam" of all five plus several other "unforeseen developments."

Quite!  It all promises to be very worrying,

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