Europe and America are on sharply divergent tracks, mainly down to the Ukraine war, but also on trade issues. A huge rift will soon open up. By now it’s become abundantly clear that Trump is in Putin’s pocket for whatever reason. Whether it’s embarrassment over his Moscow indiscretions or because he owes them money or something else, Trump is doing Putin’s bidding, and that will not change. This means that Europe and the USA will never strongly agree on a common position. They aren’t even close. Ukraine won’t agree to give up territory - and why should they - while Trump is happy to turn the screws on Zelensky to force him to accept whatever Russia demands.
The problem for the West in general is that once a nuclear power like Russia gets a taste for expansionism and acquires land, it is almost impossible to get them to give it up. It's a ratchet. If attacked, Putin would threaten to use his nuclear arsenal, so liberating it by force becomes virtually impossible.
A former Tory Junior minister has dared to say the unsayable:
Conservative MP Graham Stuart Saying the quiet bit out loud— Farrukh (@implausibleblog.bsky.social) 4 March 2025 at 15:51
Graham Stuart believes we have to treat Donald Trump as a Russian asset. I think he is an asset for Putin, perhaps even unwittingly, but it means getting any sort of agreement is virtually impossible. The two sides are and will remain miles apart until one or the other makes extremely unpalatable concessions.
Trump has spent the last week trying to squeeze more and more out of Zelensky even before negotiations start! Russia hasn’t been asked for anything at all and has even suggested they want land in Ukraine that isn’t under their control at the moment. This isn’t a peace negotiation, it’s not even capitulation. It’s far worse.
Trump has now paused arms shipments and intelligence sharing while they ‘review’ things. It isn't immediately clear to me why they can’t carry out the review while arms and intelligence continue to flow, as they have done since 2022. Why stop now? It makes no sense, unless of course, Trump is working for the Kremlin.
I predict that a huge row is going to blow up very shortly. Trump is in a hurry to get the Nobel Peace Prize (some hope) and favours a quick solution by getting the weaker side to simply roll over. That will not happen because neither Ukraine or the Europeans will agree to it. Trump is shaping up to blame Zelensky for being obstinate and then the US will walk away from the conflict. He has promised to end the war and can never admit to being wrong. Trump will apply tremendous pressure to get Zelensky out and allow Putin to keep the territory he now controls.
The question then is what Europe can and will do after that. Upping spending in the future is good but the problem is the next year or so.
Claude Malhuret, a French centre-right MP made a statement in the Senate the other day: Situation in Ukraine and security in Europe. You can read a translation HERE. This is an extract:
"It's a drama for the free world, but it's first a drama for the United States. Trump's message is that there is no point in being his ally since he will not defend you, that he will impose more customs duties on you than on his enemies and threaten you to seize your territories while supporting the dictatorships that invade you.
"The king of the deal is showing what the art of the deal is on a flat stomach. He thinks he will intimidate China by lying down in front of Putin, but Xi Jinping, faced with such a shipwreck, is undoubtedly accelerating preparations for the invasion of Taiwan.
"Never in history has a president of the United States capitulated to the enemy. No one has ever supported an aggressor against an ally. No one has ever trampled on the American Constitution, made so many illegal decrees, revoked the judges who could prevent it, dismissed the military staff at once, weakened all counter-powers and took control of social networks.
"It is not an illiberal drift, it is a beginning of confiscation of democracy. Let us remember that it took only a month, three weeks and two days to bring down the Weimar Republic and its Constitution."
He ends:
"Our parents defeated fascism and communism at the cost of all sacrifices. The task of our generation is to defeat the totalitarianisms of the 21st century. Long live free Ukraine, long live democratic Europe."
Let us all pray someone dares to do it.
Anybody who is deluded enough to believe Trump is engaged in some John Le Carre style 4-dimensional chess game should read this article in The Wall Street Journal about the behind-the-scenes activity concerning the tariff debacle with Mexico and Canada. It isn't even chaotic, it's not as organised as that.
Tariffs
Trump’s on, off, on again tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods are off at the moment but could soon be on again. Leaders from the big three American car makers met Trump earlier this week and I assume used some simple primary school pictures to explain to the president that THEY and NOT the exporting countries pay tariffs. He granted them a month’s grace. He may even have finally understood just how damaging tariffs will be for America and American businesses, but I wouldn't bet on it.
How you're supposed to run a global business or a country where you're not sure what the import tariffs are from one day to the next, I really don't know.
Later, Mexico also got a one-month extension, and finally, Canada got the same. The Wall Street Journal reported about what’s going on behind the scenes, and it doesn't sound good.
"But first thing Tuesday, Trump forged ahead, placing 25% tariffs on most goods from Mexico and Canada and making clear the fatal flaw in the negotiating process: Only Trump speaks for Trump, and the president wanted to move forward.
"The dynamic has frustrated negotiators, who are struggling to make their case to a mercurial president through a phalanx of intermediaries who at times seem to their counterparts as unsure what Trump wants. The challenge now for Canada and Mexico is how to engage Trump more directly to help dig the continent out of a trade fight that poses risks for all three economies."
Only Trump speaks for Trump and he changes his mind hour by hour depending on what he's just seen on Fox News. It's no mystery that his aides don't know what he wants at any given moment, because he doesn't either. That is THE issue with Trump and it always has been. He is both ignorant and reckless.
While this is a big problem economically for North America, for Europe and Ukraine it's existential.
