Anton Spisak, once of the Tony Blair Institute and now at the Centre for European Reform, has written a nice explanatory piece about Starmer’s deal with the EU. In brief, it will mean a lot more negotiations before anything comes of it, and when an agreement is finally reached it won’t make much difference anyway. Mr Spisak thinks we’re on our way to a complex Swiss-style agreement with Brussels involving lots of bilateral deals on different topics with almost perpetual negotiations - and there will be plenty of painful trade-offs along the way. Brussels isn’t going to be especially generous and reasonable and because they’re in the strongest position, they will get the better end of whatever is finally agreed.
For what it’s worth, I think he's wrong on one point. I don’t believe the EU will want another Swiss-type deal, and it will all be rolled up inside a single package or even made part of the TCA. But that’s by the way.
The piece is titled: Back to Lancaster House, a reference to Mrs May's speech in January 2017 and a reminder that we will still have a hard Brexit even after the deal is implemented.
For the rest, I agree with him. The deal won’t make that much difference, we are not part of the SM or the CU and the government itself admits the deal could make only a tiny £9bn addition to GDP by 2040, a mere fraction of what Brexit is costing. That should tell you everything you need to know.
We are in effect being gaslit once more. At the end of 2020, we were told the TCA would actually increase trade with the EU, and some people even believed it!
Starmer is more or less telling us the same thing. That’s all we’ve got, more promises of a little jam at some future date. If anyone expects to see some British equivalent of Germany’s post-war wirtschaftwunder or economic miracle, I am afraid they are in for a big disappointment. There is no version of Brexit that makes any economic sense for this country, or would provide any sort of serious boost to the growth that Rachel Reeves is desperately seeking.
The deal might make some minor improvements to cross-border trade and stop matters from getting worse, but a magic bullet it is certainly not. If you had any doubts, note today's Treasury borrowing figures which at £20.2 billion is the 4th highest on record
In 2029, the chancellor, whoever she or he is, will still be struggling for money to pay for decent public services. Austerity will still be the order of the day. We would have had perhaps three years to see some tangible improvements and there will be none, or none worth shouting about.
What will Starmer do then, with an election pending?
If he proposes closer alignment, he could be offering an electoral opportunity to Farage and the Tories, a gift-wrapped club to beat him over the head with. On the other hand, he could say it hasn’t worked, exports are still depressed, we did our best but it didn’t work. There are no sensible closer steps we can take short of rejoining the single market.
It will be fascinating to see how that develops.
YouGov polling suggests that a significant majority want to see a closer relationship:
Save this infographic to your collection.— Mike Galsworthy (@mikegalsworthy.bsky.social) 21 May 2025 at 09:00
It’s perfectly possible, and even probable that assuming Starmer is still in Downing Street, he will suggest even closer ties although that might be difficult. At some point, we are going to be so closely connected to the EU, member states would be justified in saying if you want any more, rejoin the single market.
This is the preferred position of 53% of the UK population who either strongly or somewhat support such a move, against 35% who are opposed, with 12% not knowing - or caring I assume.
Brexit won't be 'done' until the voters see signs of real, tangible improvement in their lives that Johnson, Gove and the rest promised all those years ago. And I just don't see that happening between now and 2029.
So, I think the deal, far from cementing Brexit into place (as the piece below from The Economist suggests), makes it almost certain that it will figure prominently in 2028-29 in what could amount to the final battle, a choice between quitting Europe completely under prime minister Farage, or rejoining the EU.
You hear from the Brexit right (and as it happens, the New European), that Sir Keir is killing Brexit. To the contrary: his deal has made it into a bipartisan project, and as a result, more likely to endure. From the email. www.economist.com/britain/2025...— Matthew Holehouse (@matthewholehouse.bsky.social) 20 May 2025 at 17:25
