Note the rise over the last 15 years where the belief that EU membership is a benefit has jumped from 53% to 74% with biggest and steadiest increase coming from September 2016. Brexit has clearly done some good, somewhere.
I suppose, given the state of the world at the moment we shouldn’t be surprised that people want security. When the questions in the Winter 2025 survey were first posed, it was known that Trump would be president of the USA and there were growing fears about what he might do. Those fears have been more than justified since.
During the referendum, if anyone suggested there were benefits to EU membership in terms of defence they would immediately be shouted down: “That’s NATO’s job.” Of course, with Donald Trump in the White House, that now looks distinctly naive, to say the least.
He has shown Europe’s elite that American support is no longer a given. Some time ago, earlier this year, George Robertson, a former Labour Defence Minister and later, a NATO Secretary General, admitted that during the UK's defence review last year which he chaired, nobody identified US withdrawal from NATO as even a low-risk possibility.
It is now the biggest single threat to the alliance. Nobody in the UK in 2016 could have foreseen the massive changes in the global order
Those who advocated Brexit or voted for it could never have imagined the USA pulling out of NATO or implementing tariffs unilaterally on British exports. This is, I believe one of the least debated and least considered issues about joining the EU. It was from the beginning, a very long-term decision, not something you can jump in and out of like a golf or squash club, an analogy that was often used to describe our membership. It was more akin to a marriage where there has to be give and take to make the relationship work.
And, like many marriages, there are good times and not-so-good times. But you don't threaten to walk out when you have a disagreement. You work at it because you know the benefits outweigh the difficulties.
The 2025 EP survey, unsurprisingly reveals that the great majority see an increased role for the EU in matters of defence:
"Two thirds of Europeans (66%) say the EU’s future role should become more important to protect citizens against global crises and security risks, a proportion that is even higher among young citizens (70%) and the main answer regardless of respondents’ attitudes towards the EU. At the national level, results range from 87% in Sweden to 47% in Romania and 44% in Poland, the only two countries where proportions are lower than 50%. A large majority in most Member States - over 70% in at least half of them - say the EU’s role to protect its citizens should become more important in the future. Here, Czechia and Poland are the only countries where more than three in ten respondents say the EU’s role in this context should stay the same (31% and 38%, respectively). Romania is the only country where the proportion for the item ‘less important’ (26%) is higher than the item ‘stay the same’ (24%)."
It's notable that only in some former Soviet Bloc countries, Czechia, Poland and Romania does support for an increased EU role appear lukewarm. I'm not sure if this is due to Russian influence, a longing to return to the fold or sheer complacency. Whatever, it seems very odd to me, given Russia's war in Ukraine, now in its fourth bloody year.
Top of the list of the things European citizens think the EU should focus on is Defence and Security.
Overwhelmingly, the vast majority (89%) of Europeans think that ‘EU Member States should be "more united to face current global challenges."
However, don’t go away with the idea that the EU and its institutions do these surveys simply for research purposes. There is a self-serving political angle as well. Brussels needs to constantly 'sell' itself and justify the costs so we always need to keep that in mind.
But I think these results are broadly good and show people are aware that in a world dominated by superpowers like the USA and China, and with rogue states like Russia, North Korea and Iran intent on smashing the West, there is no way smaller states can have any real influence without joining together in a bloc. And now it isn't just for trade and prosperity, but also in defence of our whole way of life.
This is slowly dawning on the UK's Brexit voters and must eventually result in Britain rejoining the EU.
It is just a matter of time.
