Those of us who thought the American people would come to their senses before the midterm elections next year and overturn the narrow Republican majority in the House of Representatives and perhaps even the Senate may need to think again. Trump’s approval rating is indeed said to be ‘cratering’ with just 42% of voters satisfied with his presidency. A Gallup poll last week put Trump’s approval at a rock bottom 37% — and even lower (29%) among independents. Among MAGA supporters, only 60% are satisfied, with a massive 40% dissatisfied. This is not good for him, but still amazing that around 4 in 10 Americans are apparently quite happy with the US administrative state being dismantled.
His favourability is, in fact, no worse than it was at the same point in 2017, during his first term!
But, and here's the rub, his unpopularity isn't spreading to the Republican party as a whole. While Trump is personally well underwater (i.e. below zero) on his handling of the economy, inflation, tariffs, immigration, and foreign policy, a poll for the Wall Street Journal found that voters say they trust Republicans rather than Democrats to handle those same issues in Congress!
"Voters trusted Republicans over Democrats on inflation by about 10 points; on immigration by 17 points; and handling illegal immigrants by 17 points, the survey found. In one unique finding, respondents disapproved of Trump’s tariffs by 17 points, and Republicans still scored 7 points higher than Democrats on that issue."
Whaaat! The poll puts the Democrats in their worst position at this point in 35 years.
This, despite a majority of 51% believing the change Trump is bringing to America has resulted in 'dysfunction and chaos', compared to 45% who agreed the president is making positive adjustments.
This is simply astonishing and beyond belief for me. I think most people, even in the USA, thought the Republicans would be punished severely for what the lunatic Trump is doing, and which they all support in public. But no, it looks like Trump and his slavish followers in the GOP on Capitol Hill could - at a pinch - retain a majority in both houses in 2026.
However, note that the same WSJ poll shows that if congressional elections were held today, 46% of voters said they would vote Democrat, compared to 43% who would support the Republicans. No, I don't understand it either. But it's that close, within the margin of error.`
The poll begs the question of why the Republicans are so busy trying to gerrymander the 2026 midterm elections in Texas and Ohio by fiddling with boundaries to give them more seats in the House. Perhaps they’re worried the potential harmful impacts of Trump’s policies are not yet being widely felt and that Democrats may find someone who can lead them out of the wilderness.
The whole thing is astonishing and inexplicable to me. You only need to look at Trump’s Truth Social feed to see he is seriously deranged and as mad as a hatter. If Democrats can’t soundly defeat a moron like Trump after all the insanity, we may have to conclude that America is lost as an ally and a pillar of Western liberal democracy for the foreseeable future and perhaps forever.
EU-US Trade Deal
The EU has basically agreed the outline of a trade deal with Trump in between rounds of golf at his Turnberry course in Scotland. A complex process that normally takes years of painstaking negotiations punctuated by consultations with industry leaders was settled by Trump - a certifiable idiot - in a few minutes.
The deal will see a tariff of 15% on all imports into the USA from the bloc. This isn’t good for most EU exporters but it’s probably manageable and half the 30% that was scheduled to kick in on 1 August. It’s the best that Ursula Von Der Leyen could have hoped to get out of the unhinged Trump. However, for one important sector, it seems to be a triumph. Which one? The car industry. How so?
They will only be penalised with a 15% tariff paid by the importer and eventually the buyer. Meanwhile, American manufacturers are paying 50% on steel and aluminium imports and 25% on other parts made by European suppliers. On some finished cars coming in from US-owned plants in Canada and Mexico, it will be a whopping 25% on the portion of the vehicle's value that is not considered North American content.
In other words, some foreign imports could be treated better than domestic vehicle makers. Crazy, eh?
It is beyond insane that Europe has had to negotiate down a tax that will be applied to American consumers. It will still raise up to $90 billion and will add to inflation.
Will it help return manufacturing to Detroit and the Rust Belt states? I doubt it. A 15% tariff won’t persuade foreign firms to build more plants in America (a lot of the big foreign makers already manufacture locally) in my opinion, since labour costs are so much higher there.
Tariffs have already cost General Motors (owners of Vauxhall and Opel) £1.1 billion in the second quarter, triggering a 21% drop in net income for the period. The company - America's largest car producer - said it expects tariffs to cost it between $4 billion and $5 billion by year’s end.
In the normal world, tariffs are a tool to protect a country’s specific industries seen as vital to national economic security. They are usually applied to particular goods and affect imports of that product from whichever country they come from (outside a free trade agreement). But Trump’s tariffs aren’t like that. They apply to ALL goods from a given country, even the stuff that the US desperately needs and can’t make or grow itself!
In the case of the car industry, they are actively damaging domestic businesses.
This is against all logic, international norms, and even WTO rules. His tariffs are almost certainly illegal under the WTO. The US Court of International Trade has already declared them unlawful but this has been stayed on appeal.
China has now instituted a challenge at the WTO, but the Trump administration argues that tariffs are “political matters not susceptible of review or capable of resolution by WTO dispute settlement”. But all tariffs are political matters.
They are just a tax on imports. The central problem for the US is that it can’t compete with other nations in goods, but unlike smaller countries, it is powerful enough to try and solve the issue by force.
But it can’t and won't succeed in the long term.
