The London Economic is an online, pro-Europe news and comment outlet which sometimes has interesting and thought provoking pieces. Last Friday, it carried a short op-Ed by its founder Jack Peat: Keir Starmer has an election trump card that literally nobody is talking about. The ‘trump card’ in the title is the prime minister’s ability to pledge another referendum on Brexit. Given that Starmer seems congenitally unable to speak about rejoining Europe, this may sound about as unlikely an event as you can imagine. It is a trump card that he almost certainly won’t play, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t a trump card, and it's certainly available to him.
The idea has a lot of merit, not least because a majority in the country would now vote to rejoin the EU. It would be quite popular I think, and could revive Labour’s flagging popularity. Almost all of the problems we face as a nation have some links back to Brexit in one way or another, let's face it.
There are several reasons to think it would be a winner. I can think of at least six.
Firstly, and most importantly, if Starmer is to stand a chance in 2028-29, he needs to put Farage on the back foot, forcing him to defend the Brexit to which he is irrevocably associated. It is his baby, and I'm sure he would claim he's the only person who can do it 'properly', but that looks like an increasingly difficult argument to make since six prime ministers and governments have all had a go, and it is still seen as a success by just 12% of the population.
What is the point of trying to implement a policy that only one man says he can make work anyway? Even assuming he's right, what happens if he pops his clogs? I think there is a lot of mileage in clogging up campaign airtime with images of Farage being questioned about all the false promises he's made over the years.
Secondly, it would provide a focus and an explanation for the economic headwinds we’re facing. Starmer and Reeves could argue, with real justification, that talk of austerity and tax rises is all as a direct result of Brexit and leaving the single market. I think industry would back that up now in a way that was impossible in 2016. We've tried it, but it hasn't worked. When do we cut our losses and return to the EU? Most reputable economists would be happy to reinforce the message.
Thirdly, the small boats problem is (according to some serious polling) the most important issue for many voters. Farage has made much political capital out of it - but he is largely if not entirely, to blame, as this article makes clear. He is getting a free ride at the moment. Bringing the whole issue - and, more importantly, the reasons for it - back centre stage would really concentrate minds.
Fourthly, it would enable Starmer to talk about how the economy could be revived through improved trade and investment as a result of returning to the EU single market. I think the influential farming lobby would back him up on this.
Fifth, I think it would help to stop the haemorrhaging of support to the Lib Dems and the Greens in England and Plaid Cymru in Wales as well as the SNP in Scotland. Unless Starmer comes off the fence and makes a decision, he will continue to lose votes on both sides. Better to halve your losses and start to attract disillusioned pro-Europeans back to the fold.
Starmer could stop wasting time trying to retain Red Wall Reform defectors. They are lost to him anyway. He will never beat Farage on racism and shouldn’t try.
Finally, it would end the charge that people don't know what Labour stands for any more. It would, at a stroke, stop the muddle and the woolly thinking and enable the party to run a far more tightly focused campaign. It would change the conversation and rejuvenate the party's electoral fortunes.
Will he play the trump card? Probably not.
