In 2020, he lost middle America by 13%. He lost it in 2024 as well, but by a much smaller 3% margin, and that allowed him to win a second term. But middle America is turning decisively against Trump.
He is behind on every major issue. The US public as a whole opposes Trump's 'policies' (I use the word loosely here) on Greenland, Venezuela, Iran, inflation, immigration and ICE. This polling was done 16-19 January, so it didn't include the latest outrages in Minneapolis. I assume he has sunk a little more since then.
But here’s the really interesting thing. Trump is behind roughly 60-40 on all these issues, and Kellner says this is not normal or plausible for voters to be so consistent. He says that if voters considered each issue on its specific merits, the range of polling numbers would be far greater. Why so?
"The obvious conclusion, which happily sits with both common sense and the nature of political debate these days, is that increasing numbers of voters are offended by Trump’s character and, as a result, condemn everything he does. This is true even of his much-vaunted policies to tackle immigration. His figures on this are not quite as bad as on everything else, but still poor. Most Americans now regard their president as a reverse Midas, who turns all he touches into dross."
In other words, Trump's wayward character and psychotic personality are what voters are passing an opinion on, not the actual things he is doing.
Another reason for this, I suggest, is because Trump is doing exactly what he said he would not do and not doing what he said he would. During the campaign, he was clear that he wouldn't involve the US in foreign adventures, he wouldn't pursue the government dismantling aims of Project 2025, and he would end the Ukraine war, release all the Epstein files and cut food and fuel prices.
So far, he has done the precise opposite. His own supporters may be willing to undertake a lot of mental Pilates to argue that Trump is still right or to excuse what he's doing, but middle America is less forgiving. They want action.
For the Republican party, I wonder if they are starting to realise what sort of long-term damage Trump is doing to their party amongst these swing voters and younger 18-24 year olds who will determine the future of the USA in the decades ahead?
Tesla
Tesla's share price has long been a mystery to me. The stock market values Tesla as being worth more than the next 25 global car makers put together. You could sell Tesla, buy the entire European car industry and still have $800 billion in change! Musk's car business is worth about the same as Poland’s entire GDP. This is literally incredible.
Now, an investment fund manager, George Noble, has said the previously unsayable. It's a bubble. Last year was the second consecutive year of declining sales almost everywhere. And again here, just like Trump, buyers are being put off not just because of poor build quality, lack of reliability and an ageing line-up, but also by Musk's personality and extreme right-wing views.
Noble says:
"I think this is the biggest bubble possibly in stock market history," he told Business Insider, referring to Tesla. "There's not been a single stock, in my opinion, that has been so disconnected from fundamental valuation."
Noble thinks Tesla stock should actually be trading between $60 and $140 a share, which at the bottom end would represent a decline of about 87% from last Friday's price. It has been dangerously overinflated by hype and Musk's optimistic forecasts, which have consistently turned out to be wrong.
Sooner or later, shareholders will realise Musk is a conman. It can't come soon enough for me.
