The irresistible pro-EU forces gathered against Kier Starmer and his Brexit red lines continue to grow, like water rising dangerously behind a structurally faulty dam. It is clearly only a matter of time before he is forced to make serious concessions, erase the red lines and fully commit to rejoining the EU. This week, the Spanish PM said societies can "review their mistakes" and admit the chosen path was the wrong one. He was followed by a declaration from the French foreign minister that Britain would be greeted with “open arms” if it decided to return to the single market. These are important indicators.
Europe's siren voices are beckoning us towards the bloc again. It only adds to the domestic pressure building up behind Starmer’s stubborn insistence that Britain must remain outside the CU and the SM.
Multiple polls show, consistently and without exception over a period of years, that a majority of voters (roughly 60-40) want to see Brexit reversed. There is no doubt the door is wide open. Labour Party members are in favour by a massive 80% or so. A majority of Starmer’s MPs want to see Britain back in the EU fold. His cabinet is definitely pro-EU, whatever is said in public.
At the Mais lecture this week, Chancellor Rachel Reeves called for a deeper relationship with Brussels on regulation, energy and defence. She is desperate for growth and recognises that Britain's home is in Europe. The FT reported that the EU are likely to "baulk at the chancellor’s unrealistic strategy to cherry-pick arrangements without being prepared to rethink the government’s redline opposition to returning to the single market or customs union. The bloc is likely to demand politically contentious concessions in return. Reeves’ approach echoes the 'cakeism' that stymied earlier negotiations with Brussels."
In short, the reset will not be enough, or anywhere near enough.
Meanwhile, pollster Sir John Curtice told the BBC's In Depth team that Labour is losing twice as much support to the anti-Brexit Greens and the LibDems as they are to Reform UK.
Interesting piece on why Labour is very slowly coming round to a pro-EU stance - they’ve lost 9% support to Reform but 19% to the Rejoiners of the Greens and Lib Dems.— Mark Chadbourn (@chadbourn.bsky.social) 20 March 2026 at 08:22
The policy of sticking to Reform’s agenda on Brexit and immigration is obviously not working, and the sheer incompetence of Reform councils up and down the country, plus the racism which is central to their ideology, is turning voters off.
The mayor of London Sadiq Khan has been vocal about wanting Britain to rejoin the EU and Starmer’s former deputy Angela Rayner appears to be lining herself up for a leadership challenge when the time is right. She has not suggested breaching Labour’s EU red lines, but I imagine if it meant she could outflank other potential candidates by taking up a pro-European position, she would do it.
ITV ran an item on the Robert Peston show detailing how little Labour's so-called 'reset' (even if successful) would add to our GDP, compared to the massive loss already sustained by Brexit:
The Peston show asked me to update my back-of-the-envelope estimates of the benefits of the UK-EU reset. Take a look— John Springford (@johnspringford.bsky.social) 20 March 2026 at 08:26
Adding to the pressure is, of course, the moron in the White House who seems intent on destroying the international order and returning to an era when might was right. As a middle-ranking power, Britain cannot influence world events as it once could. But, as part of a European Union that is at last beginning to realise it needs to face up to its responsibilities and assert some military muscle to sit alongside its economic interests, the UK could amplify its soft power and make a real impact.
NATO is diminishing in importance under Trump. The US right is making inroads into European politics, funding parties whose existence is inimical to the EU. This is simply reinforcing the work that Putin has been undertaking for decades to undermine and weaken European unity. Reversing Brexit is the obvious way to show Britain's support for the project.
Iceland is holding a referendum in August on joining the EU. Norway isn’t actively engaged in a debate, and although it is in the SM, it has historically opposed EU membership, but public opinion is finally starting to shift. If they do both join, together with the nations already in the accession process, only Russia, Belarus and the UK would remain outside the EU or the Single Market. It would be a lonely place to be.
Given that Farage will soon be trying to distance himself from Trump, as the idiot creates havoc around the world while destroying the bedrocks of democracy at home, it would be an ideal time to also force him to defend the indefensible in Brexit. Reform-controlled councils are giving a masterclass in how to make yourself unpopular and unelectable, it would enable Starmer to wrest the agenda from Farage and Co and provide an additional handicap to his prospects of ever occupying Downing Street.
Only Starmer knows why he's sticking to his red lines, but he would be well advised to change course.
