The Brexit 'Horror Stories' are true

In a few weeks, we will be celebrating (if that's the right word) the tenth anniversary of the 2016 EU Referendum. It is no exaggeration to say that Brexit has, without question, been an abject failure. This isn't to say everyone agrees the project has failed, but nearly two-thirds of the population consistently say that it was a mistake. As always, there are a few diehard supporters who are trying to convince themselves and others not that Brexit has been a success, but given more time, they will somehow be vindicated when its finally 'done properly' - code for not all the ways tried so far. 

I say this while noting that The Daily Telegraph, still unwilling to concede that its support for the project has cost Britain dearly, intends to host an event at a conference centre in London on 29 June, titled 'The Big Debate: How to make Brexit a success.' Such luminaries as the Lords Frost and Hannan will be on a panel hosted by Allister Heath, which will attempt to stem the last, rapidly dwindling, support for Brexit. The title is the giveaway. Had Brexit been the great success Hannan claimed it would be in 2016, the event would have had a different label: How we were right about Brexit.

To see what a fine line is being trodden here, a few days ago, the same newspaper ran an article by one of the very small number of Brexit-supporting economists, Liam Halligan, that at the very least implies it has actually gone quite well: The Brexit horror stories aren’t true. He refers to the more hysterical pre-referendum warnings that the UK would suffer “an immediate and profound economic shock” if it voted to leave the EU. He says that was pure propaganda.

To support his case, he shows a chart titled 'Brexit Bonus?'of the UK's export growth since Q2 2016:

We are second only to Canada among the G7, according to his figures. I was dubious that our exports had grown by 45% since 2016, so I asked Google's AI to provide a chart "comparing the percentage change in exports of goods/services since Q2 2016 between the USA, Canada, UK, Germany, France, Italy and Japan using OECD figures." You can easily do this for yourself.

This is the result:-

"According to latest tracked database trends from the OECD Data Explorer and the OECD Economic Outlook Annexes, the United States and Italy have achieved the highest percentage growth in real export volumes of goods and services since Q2 2016, while the United Kingdom has lagged significantly behind its G7 peers."

"Comparative Table: Total Export Volume Growth

"The following table tracks the cumulative growth in chained volume estimates (inflation-adjusted) for the exports of goods and services relative to the baseline quarter of Q2 2016 = 100: 

USA - +24.5% Strong intellectual property, tech, and energy services.

Italy - +22.1% Resilient machinery exports and high-performing services.

Canada - +14.8%  Energy exports and primary commodities balancing out tourist fluctuations.

France - +13.2%  Luxury goods rebound, industrial components, and tourism.

Germany - +11.5%  Mixed goods performance heavily impacted by supply chain shocks.

Japan - +9.8%  Fluctuating automotive sales offset by shipping/aircraft spikes.

United Kingdom +1.4% Post-Brexit transition barriers in goods offsetting services growth."

According to AI, Britain is not second only to Canada in the growth of exports (both goods and services) since 2016, but is actually at the bottom of the G7 league table with a miserable 1.4%. AI attributes the shocking stagnation to "Post-Brexit transition barriers."

The AI system used inflation-adjusted values, which reveal the true extent of the damage Brexit has inflicted on the British economy. Halligan's figures simply show how much inflation we have had

In 2025, UK exports were worth £930 billion. Had we kept pace with Italy, France and Germany we would have exported perhaps another £100 billion. Our exports are said to support 6.5 million jobs in Britain, so the extra £100 billion could have been responsible for another 600,000 families, with all the attendant spending power and tax receipts.

No, Mr Halligan is pulling the wool over our eyes. The Brexit horror stories are true.