There is some muddled thinking on the part of some leavers that because we run a substantial trade deficit with the EU, they are bound to offer us an exceptional free trade deal. In other words we are negotiating from a position of strength. But this is not quite the whole picture and may lead to some dangerous assumptions.
Britain has run a persistent trade deficit with most of the other EU-28 for two decades, and that this has worsened as time has gone by. But they also reveal that our trade deficit with the EU is not distributed uniformly. Most EU members have only a comparatively modest trade surplus with the UK. (Change or Go - 2015, page 224)
The EU countries with large trade surpluses with us are Germany and France according to the graphs accompanying the text above. Germany has by far the largest. The question for leavers to answer is this. Do we choose to buy from Germany (or France) out of some sense of solidarity or loyalty? And if we didn't buy from Germany where would we get the goods we need?
The plain fact is that Germany has a trade surplus in manufactured goods with virtually EVERY country. We are far from being alone.
And sadly, the reason for this is that German products all too often are the best you can get. Most of British industry runs on Siemens industrial computers (called PLCs), or electric motors from SEW, for example. White goods by Bosch, AEG, Miele dominate the UK market. Virtually all cement in the UK is packaged by Haver & Boecker or Mollers. If you want good, reliable, well made equipment and you seek out the best you will usually find it in Germany, and from relatively small companies who are frequently world leaders in their own fields.
So, to return to my question. Where will we buy our VWs, BMWs and Mercedes cars or Mercedes and MAN trucks? What about our washing machines and dishwashers and thousands of other products that come across the Channel every year? I think we will find we cannot manage easily without a lot of German engineering. But can Germany manage without our beef or agricultural exports? Perhaps they can. We may be cutting off our nose to spite our face.
