In 2012 David Davis suggested a double referendum strategy for renegotiating our relationship with the EU (HERE). He wanted the government to set out its plans for this new relationship, taking back control of immigration, justice and home affairs, social and employment legislation and so on. Once this had been agreed in detail, it would be put to the people in a first referendum. He thought it would get a 70% majority.
The government, if it did indeed get a mandate, would then negotiate with the EU based on the agreed terms. At the end of the negotiation, what had finally been agreed would be put to the people in a second referendum, what he called the “decision referendum”. This would either be approved or we would trigger Article 50.
In the event, as we know, Cameron decided to just go for some negotiations and one in/out referendum that was lost so we have now invoked Article 50.
Davis’ approach may have been better but the important point is that there would have been a referendum on the terms finally negotiated. But now he is in government and in a position to give us that second referendum, he is stoutly resisting it. One might argue that last year's vote was also on the terms negotiated by Cameron and the people rejected them. This would be true but no reason surely to break with the principle of allowing the people to approve the final deal.
However, this may be best for remainers. If there was a second referendum, with government along with most of Fleet Street backing whatever the deal was, as they are bound to do, there might be little prospect of remain winning and we would be out for a generation at least. If we can experience life outside the EU for a year or two, while we consistently point the finger of blame for any economic difficulties at Brexit, there may be pressure building for a new referendum within a few years. This is the quickest route, in my opinion, for a return to the EU fold.
Remainers cannot afford to lose a second referendum. It must not be another finely balanced result. Let us wait until we are overwhelmingly sure of a win, when polling evidence is clear and consistent, before we press for another vote. Time is on our side.
Remainers cannot afford to lose a second referendum. It must not be another finely balanced result. Let us wait until we are overwhelmingly sure of a win, when polling evidence is clear and consistent, before we press for another vote. Time is on our side.
