I think we are witnessing the beginning of the end for the Conservative party. Mrs May says she switched from being a remainer to leading our exit from the EU to "restore faith in politicians". It will in fact achieve the precise opposite and in the process destroy or at least seriously damage the Conservatives. Many believe faith in politicians has reached an all-time low but there are new depths to plumb yet. My starting point is that Brexit will be a disaster for all sorts of complex reasons - not least the ill feeling created by the negotiations.
Consider where we are. A minority of Tory MPs were actively and vociferously in favour of Brexit and had argued for it for years. I am thinking about Bill Cash, John Redwood et al, while the majority of Tories believed we were best served by remaining in the EU. Leavers and those including Mrs May who are recent converts are now in the ascendancy. Remainers are keeping quiet.
When the full import of the disaster that is Brexit is appreciated by a majority of the populace the voters will not blame themselves. Faith in politics will take another body blow. The gullible who were taken in by the £350 million a week for the NHS will finally see the light. I confidently predict this will happen before the next election.
The Conservative leavers (Johnson, Leadsom, Gove and Co) will be blamed for all the lies and the ludicrous claims of untold prosperity. The newly converted like Mrs May will be blamed for doing something they knew to be wrong and against the best interests of the country. The remainers will be blamed for not speaking out for what they believed in and for deferring to the uninformed and badly misled instead of holding on to their opinion. No Conservative MP is going to come out of Brexit untarnished and the party will be even more seriously divided from which it may take years to recover. With a bit of luck it never will.
Update 30th June 2017:The Irish Times has an article (HERE) on the revenge of the electorate and The Independent (HERE) has an article about a New Britain rising - both of which I think are bad news for the Conservatives.
Update 19th September: Denis McShane (HERE) thinks ideology will be the death of the party, the ideology being hatred of the EU. Brexit is pursued without regard to anything else including industry, commerce and the well-being of the people. If the lunatics among the Tories succeed in pulling us out of the EU, the party will deserve to die. And InFacts say we are coming to the endgame where the cake and eat it approach must give way to clarity one way or the other and this endgame risks tearing the Conservatives apart (HERE).
Update 19th September: Denis McShane (HERE) thinks ideology will be the death of the party, the ideology being hatred of the EU. Brexit is pursued without regard to anything else including industry, commerce and the well-being of the people. If the lunatics among the Tories succeed in pulling us out of the EU, the party will deserve to die. And InFacts say we are coming to the endgame where the cake and eat it approach must give way to clarity one way or the other and this endgame risks tearing the Conservatives apart (HERE).
