Every so often, in these dark times for remainers, one comes across things that lift the spirits. The election in June was one of them. Another is a website I found the other day called Whatukthinks. They have been tracking a regular YouGov opinion poll that asks the question - in hindsight do you think the vote to leave the EU was right or wrong? YouGov have carried these polls out at intervals since the referendum in June 2016. Since then there has been a total of thirty seven.
The result is a graph like this:
In the months following the vote you can see the polling showed the results that you might expect. The leavers still thought it was right and the remainers thought it was wrong, in roughly the same proportions as the actual result. Leave always narrowly ahead. Only once, in 2016 did a majority think it was the wrong decision. This was in December.
Readers of this blog will know that from the beginning I have always thought a combination of disenchantment with Brexit and the changing demographics with more pro European younger voters joining the electorate will finally come to our rescue. As Article 50 was invoked at the end of March and the complex realities of Brexit began to appear in place of the simple breezy confidence of the brexiteers, perhaps public opinion is starting to change.
The Whatukthinks tracker (HERE) showed that in May, "wrong" was twice ahead in the polls. In June "wrong" was ahead in three out of the last four polls and in the fourth the two sides were level. Those who thought the decision was right were never in the lead at all.
Before anyone assumes there is a sea change in opinion we should remember (a) it's only a poll and not a referendum, although it seemed quite accurate at the start anyway, (b) the last four polls may just be a statistical blip and finally (c) polls of the size YouGov used have a 3% error anyway.
However, it does seem to be real evidence that my belief is right. Gradually, over time as all of the difficulties become clear, much clearer than the brexiteers allowed them to be during the campaign, people will begin to see that leaving the EU is not as easy or as beneficial as they were told, in fact it will start to look like the disaster we all know it will be. A new cohort of young voters will also start to swell the remain side. These two factors will combine to produce a growing majority to remain or rejoin the EU. There can be no other outcome.
To help keep an eye on this site I have put a link to it on the right hand side bar. If the trend continues I'll post on it again.
