David Davis was confronted on Question Time last night by Nick Clegg about the Treasury forecast before the referendum that we would be poorer by about £45 billion if we left the EU and traded on WTO terms. Davis answered it by saying the Treasury also forecast an immediate recession. In other words they were wrong on the recession and the timing so therefore all their forecasts are wrong.
Now you and me might see this as completely irrational thinking since no one has a perfect record. If to be believed you can never have made any past errors at all then we would find it very hard to fill any job in government. But even so, the forecast they were referring to is this one HERE. The Treasury based its forecast for the immediate effects of Brexit on Article 50 being invoked "straightaway" (see paragraph 1.42 page 25) as David Cameron had said in a debate in the House on 22nd February 2016. Mr Davis conveniently ignores this although he must have read it - if he didn't then Lord help us. The Treasury expected Article 50 to be submitted at the end of June 2016.
As it was, we waited until 29th March 2017. In effect, this means we are only just beginning to see the effects of Brexit and as we know, the economy slowed dramatically in the first quarter of the year (see HERE). So, although there may not be a recession we are certainly headed for a slowdown and we may well sail very close to a technical recession indeed. In which case The Treasury will have been vindicated. If this happens will David Davis apologise? Don't hold your breath.
