There are some very odd results coming from polling organisations in this election campaign. YouGov has the Conservatives falling 18 seats short (HERE) backing up a similar poll by Opinium while Lord Ashcroft (HERE) says his polling shows a 60 seat majority for the government. He gives a range of between 40 and 78 seats depending on turnout. Today YouGov (HERE) suggested she would be 21 seats short.
This is all a very far cry from the landslide Mrs May was hoping for when she called the election. Despite the variation in the polls, what they are all agreed upon is that she has lost a great deal of support. Her approval rating has sunk alarmingly (HERE). This may be due to the so-called dementia tax U turn or the fact that she has refused to debate the other leaders together and comes across as wooden with social skills similar to those of Gordon Brown. She is apparently very unpopular with cabinet colleagues and there is unrest at the way the manifesto was drawn up by a small group close the the PM. The manifesto has been widely criticised for containing few details and no costs.
Forecasting is more difficult now than it has been for a long time. Brexit has broken the mould. Many former labour voters have turned to the Tories while a lot of new, younger voters support Jeremy Corbyn who has performed better than many expected. In fact if anyone could be described as strong and stable it is him. He has withstood sledgehammer attacks from the right wing press remarkably well and has the same views he held thirty years ago. He might even make a good PM!
The results on Friday will be very interesting. Either YouGov are going to be proved right or they will be a laughing stock.
Update 1: Andrew Hawkins, the chairman of ComRes has said “If voters behave in the way they broadly did in 2015 then the Conservatives remain on track for a 100-plus majority. This seems, on present assumptions, the most likely outcome.” Meanwhile The Independent has a story (HERE) that Whitehall is preparing for a hung parliament!!
Update 1: Andrew Hawkins, the chairman of ComRes has said “If voters behave in the way they broadly did in 2015 then the Conservatives remain on track for a 100-plus majority. This seems, on present assumptions, the most likely outcome.” Meanwhile The Independent has a story (HERE) that Whitehall is preparing for a hung parliament!!
