There was a report in The Standard the other day (HERE) of a private dinner that took place before the election where Lord Lawson (Nigel) gave a speech explaining why it was necessary for Mrs May to win a big majority. He suggested it was because Brexit would cause a significant hit to the economy in the short term and the Conservatives needed a buffer because they would lose 50 seats at the next election in 2022.
"That is no disaster: there is no greater nonsense than the claim that, in the absence of a trade agreement with the EU, we shall be falling off a cliff edge. There is no cliff edge, for the simple reason that there is no cliff. In the absence of a trade agreement with the EU we shall continue to trade with our former partners, but on WTO terms".
This is how to publicly reassure voters that there jobs are not at risk. I think most people will read short term "hit" as a "cliff edge", the one he told us would not exist a few months ago. This is what is going to cause Brexit to fail. I think:
- There will be a short term hit to the economy
- People will notice it in jobs, taxation, prosperity and so on
- Labour will win the next election - no matter what or when
- We will remain in or rejoin the EU sooner or later
