Ed Balls has co-written a report released by Harvard University on Brexit and trade. Called Making Brexit Work for British Business, you can see it HERE. It is based on interviews with small and medium sized businesses and trade associations. At 93 pages it's quite long but it tries to "cut through the noise" and see how Brexit might play out with different sectors. I thought you might like to have a few quotes from the document. These make interesting reading.
the businesses we spoke to were highly sceptical about the potential to replace unfettered access to the EU market with growth elsewhere. 61% of British goods and services exports go to the Single Market or to countries with which the UK already has an FTA via the EU; half of the remainder is represented by the US
a massive increase in trade with such countries would be needed to offset a small reduction in trade with the EU.
To illustrate the importance of increasing the underlying competitiveness of our industries, some pointed to the fact that Germany already exports almost four times as much to China as does the UK6, despite facing the same tariff and non-tariff barriers.
Companies want Brexit to lead to streamlined regulation, not more regulation. Yet none of the firms we spoke to expect a regulatory “windfall”. Indeed, many expressed concern that Brexit would paradoxically result in an increased regulatory burden. If British regulations diverge from EU standards, companies that export to the EU will now have to comply with an additional set of regulations
the majority of businesses we interviewed were broadly satisfied with current regulatory approaches in their sectors
Many firms expressed significant concerns about the loss of British engagement in EU rule-making processes
businesses dependent on highly integrated supply chains across Europe will face increased frictional costs.
businesses that rely heavily on harmonised regulation fear additional costs, loss of competitiveness and loss of influence on future regulations.
companies across most sectors expressed concerns about continued access to EU labour, from highly skilled scarce talent in the creative, scientific and financial sectors, to seasonal low skilled labour in agriculture and hospitality
None of the companies we spoke to, across any sector, saw their industry benefiting unambiguously from Brexit
These quotations are all from the executive summary and demonstrate how difficult it is all going to be for business. And remember business is what produces the great majority of the wealth we generate. Brexit is a massive gamble for UK industry and worryingly the government seems to have given no thought to it, prioritising immigration over everything else.
