Saturday 24 June 2017

THE CANADIAN FTA - CETA

I think it is clear that on Brexit we are heading for a choice between remaining in the EU and a FTA along the lines of CETA. I say this because if we demand a "deep and special relationship" which does not create any additional barriers to trade the EU will say that must be the EEA option or membership. Either of these will mean freedom of movement continues as well as budget payments but in the EEA we have no say over the rules. There would be no point in leaving just to give up the influence we have at the moment.  So, in this case EEA/Remain are really one and the same thing.

If we do not accept the EEA/remain a member option the only thing between this and an FTA is a Swiss style relationship which also might be called deep and special. But this is not a desirable option for the EU who I believe have said they do not want anything like the many complicated bilateral agreements they have with the Swiss. You can see why when you look at just the eighteen major ones (HERE). I think in total there are more than a hundred.

The alternative is an FTA and it seems CETA is the "modern and progressive" answer to FTAs as the joint Canada/EU statement said when CETA was agreed. I think therefore it is worth looking at it in a bit of detail. The EU will I believe see it as a sort of template.

The first thing to say is it's very long (see the joint interpretive instrument HERE) and took seven years to negotiate, so I wouldn't expect anything in less than five years which is probably why the EU have suggested a three year transitional period after we leave in March 2019. I'll go through CETA and see what it might mean for us.