The negotiations are just about beginning. The first meeting of the two sides took place on 19th June and it is generally accepted the EU won on the question of sequencing (HERE). No discussions on the trade deal will take place before citizens rights, the Irish border question and the accounts are settled. Some on the leave side still think we are not supplicants (HERE) and we have a strong hand to play.
I have to say this is not the majority view to say the least and it has all the appearance of whistling to keep their spirits up. Those holding these views, David Davis included, believe the so called Brexit bill is part of the "nothing is agreed until everything is agreed" mantra as if we might walk away without paying unless we get a trade deal. In practice it would be unthinkable for this country to fail in its obligations under a treaty but even this does not tell the whole story.
It will take years to negotiate a trade deal, far more than the two years available. This is universally accepted, outside of the Brexit lunatics, and a long transitional period will be needed during which we will continue to make the payments that the accounts settlement specifies. In fact we may have to pay MORE since after March 2019 the treaty under which we get the rebate comes to an end. The EU 27 may well demand we make continuing payments while negotiations continue. And the EU will then have an incentive to keep them going as long as possible.
Finally, a year after the referendum and as negotiations get underway, we have the two sides positions on citizen's rights, the very first topic. The EU's, published a month ago is HERE, the UK's is HERE. The two sides are far apart but since we only published our position on Monday, they will now take some time to give a detailed response. Their initial reaction is that our offer is not good enough. Effectively we have wasted a month when we could have provided the EU with a position paper much earlier.
One cannot help but reflect on the way things are going. I thought the EU had always been regarded by brexiteers as slow and unwieldy but it is actually the UK that looks beaurocratic and clumsy. The EU seem quick, nimble and transparent by comparison.
Observers will look keenly for what happens next. Who is going to compromise? Will those who still believe we have a strong negotiating position be proved right?
An article in The Independent (HERE) probably reflects a genuine feeling that we are all getting sick and tired of Brexit but as the writer says, the important stuff has not even begun yet. By early 2019 with time running out, a civil service totally overwhelmed, the populace bewildered by all the actual and potential changes and a sinking economy who knows what will happen?
