As I might have mentioned before I get emails from Brexit Central, a site dedicated to ardent Brexiteers always cheering things on and ignoring any bad news. Wednesday this week was typical. A complete non-entity named Ewen Stewart who is said to be a director of something called Global Britain has written a piece (HERE) saying they must not allow die hard remoaners' (that's you and me) predictions of economic doom to become self fulfilling.
However, while there is no justification for watering down the terms of the exit from the EU, it is clear that Project Fear is rearing its head again. But even if there is a complete breakdown of discussions with the EU, the UK will perform perfectly well so long as confidence holds. Global Britain’s estimate is that even under ‘no deal’ the GDP effect would be negligible.
Most countries trade with the EU under WTO rules – US, China, Japan and Australia for example – and do so very successfully. Why should the UK be any different?
So, there we have it. Under no deal all will be well according to Mr Stewart. Of course we can trade with the EU under WTO rules but let us not pretend we are like the other countries he mentions because we're not. The chancellor, The Treasury and just about every serious economic forecaster says it will be a disaster but Brexit Central has got someone to say the opposite. This is why I am confident that it will be a disaster. If it was to be a success there would be a queue of heavyweight economists to tell us so - but there isn't.
The only possible difficulty for us is if the Brexiteers narrative that it is the undermining of confidence by remainers that has caused an economic downturn takes hold. But we should be vigilant, keep the pressure up and trust the people to see through it.
