The Repeal Bill or the European Union (Withdrawal) Bill as it will be known has been published and as expected it was greeted with delight by the pro Brexit press and by some scepticism from remainers. It does not incorporate the Fundamental Charter of Human Rights into UK law, something that Labour MPs will not accept and it gives ministers Henry VIII powers for two years to tweak UK law to avoid any problems. This may apply to 1000 regulations and MPs will be given a vote on very few of them (HERE). This is also likely to cause serious issues in getting the bill through parliament.
However, what comes over to a layman like me is the sheer complexity of the bill. We were told it would be a very simple bill but it looks to me like a field day being prepared for lawyers.
Every day more plates are added to the great Brexit plate spinning act. From the Repeal Bill and several other pieces of new legislation, to the EU negotiations on withdrawal and trade, plus a new Euratom treaty, Open Skies agreement and new immigration, agriculture and fishing policies can be added the implementation of a new customers computer system due to begin operation just two months before we exit the EU. The NAO has issued a stark warning about the last point (HERE).
We also need to renegotiate 35 existing EU trade agreements, the new Canadian agreement CETA and about 750 bilateral agreements that the EU has negotiated on our behalf and which we will no longer be party to after we leave.
To say Brexit hasn't started yet is a massive understatement. What can possibly go wrong?
Brexit is proceeding exactly as complex projects always do. At first euphoria, at least among the enthusiastic advocates, slowly gives way to a more realistic appraisal. Opponents are initially silenced and although beset by doubts, they keep their misgivings quiet. The appraisal begins to reveal unforeseen problems but the leaders appear confident in public even if they begin to sense the project may not quite be the great success they hoped for.
Those who have doubted the whole thing from the outset soon start to note the mounting difficulties and find their voice. Criticism becomes louder and more persistent. This is more or less where we are now in July 2017.
The moment is important. Either the leaders get a grip on the project and take control (Oh the irony) or the project effectively becomes uncontrollable. From the outside and as a dedicated remainers, I lean towards the latter. Brexiteers have always underestimated the complexity and did no planning beforehand. Our final destination was always uncertain and in the year since the vote the uncertainty has probably increased. Many things have come out which were never discussed at all during the campaign. The Brexit bill, Euratom and the Open Skies agreement are all new to me at least and perhaps to others too. One gets the impression the government is overwhelmed but are for the time being keeping up the pretence that all is well.
This cannot continue much longer.
