Every day that passes increases my confidence that Brexit is not going to happen. From the deadlocked talks in Brussels, the economic clouds starting to gather and the ever more manifest difficulties in the withdrawal process, not to mention the political fragility of the government, there is not the slightest sign anywhere of the great future Brexiteers promised. And yet, the newspapers continue to behave as if all is well. All we have to do apparently is threaten to leave, stamp our feet a bit more and the prize is ours.
Brexit always was going to be a disaster. But even the most sceptical remainers could not have believed it would all go so wrong, so quickly. Who in their wildest dreams imagined any government making such a horlicks of it?
There was no plan ready when the referendum result came in and still there is no plan. What prompted Mrs May to send the Article 50 letter in March we may never know. It would be fascinating to learn what the civil service advice was. Did they really suggest triggering the two year process without a defined objective? I can't believe they did.
As for ruling out the obvious solution as a member of the EEA for an indefinite period while we worked out what we wanted, this looks now like a masterstroke on the part of remainers. And exiting the customs union is creating massive and probably unresolvable problems at the Irish border. One begins to think David Davis is a secret remainer and is deliberately selecting the worst possible options at every turn.
Now the banks are beginning to get restless. RBS Chairman Sir Howard Davies (HERE) piled pressure on the government to get a deal on a transition by next March at the latest otherwise banks will start to move thousands of jobs into the EU. If the EU Council don't agree to move to phase 2 in October then the next realistic chance of reaching agreement is the next Council meeting in March. In other words there will be no time left.
The government has got itself into a pickle. We are playing a bad hand very badly. Walking away without a deal is not an option, regardless of what the newspapers and some seriously disturbed Brexiteers think. They must see, sooner or later, that no government or even Brexit itself could survive a big economic downturn or the massive dislocation that would result. Blame would attach to Brexit for everything and the public's appetite for leaving would suffer. Would anyone believe the Brexiteers who will say it wasn't our fault?
The prize they have waited for would have been pushed away by the very people who have wanted it for so long. InFacts have produce a similar post (HERE)
