Sunday 15 October 2017

DANGLING THE TRADE TALKS CARROT

The EU's draft resolution for next week's summit is perhaps a clever move (HERE). It's a conciliatory gesture and a sign of their willingness to move swiftly on to trade - as soon as sufficient progress is seen on the separation issues. If we were to walk away now the blame would be on us. They will look like reasonable people while we would be cast as the tight fisted villains refusing to pay what we committed to as a member.

It is giving us a glimpse of the prize that we will get if if we're good - if we agree which commitments we are liable for and we come up with proper, workable ideas for the Irish border. And while money occupies the press, this is easily solved, we just pay it. Far more problematic is the invisible border across Ireland that no one has any ideas how to make work. The Irish opposition leader Micheal Martin (HERE) thinks a hard border is unavoidable if we leave the customs union.

Charlie Elphicke is the Conservative MP for Dover and was on the radio yesterday saying we aren't going to pay any money until we know what we'll get for it. He seems to think the Brexit bill is about getting better access to the single market. It isn't. The money is part of the separation issues and is for past commitments, not future access. It is a precondition to get to trade talks not the price of trade.

This report (HERE) appears to show that France and Germany are pushing continued ECJ jurisdiction on citizens rights even above the money issue. It looks like they are aiming for the higher moral ground, not difficult against some of our foam-at-the-mouth Brexiteers and their obsession with our money and our sovereignty.