POLLING - IS OPINION SHIFTING

I keep an eye on a series of polls on WhatUKthinks (HERE and on the sidebar of this blog) because it's interesting to see if public opinion is beginning to move. YouGov have carried out 44 polls since August 2016 always asking the same question: In hindsight was Britain right or wrong to vote to leave the EU? The latest was published today and showed a huge 5% majority for WRONG!

If you look back at the series, in the first 33 polls up to May this year RIGHT was ahead in 26 of them but only ever had a 5% lead once (15th March 2017). Since 25th May however, there has been a noticeable change. In the eleven polls carried out since then, RIGHT has only been ahead once, it was level on 4 occasions and WRONG was in front in 6.  The last one on 11th October shows a 5% lead for WRONG (47- 42%). I wonder if we will ever see RIGHT in the lead again?

If I omit the don't knows the figures become 52.8% WRONG and 47.2% RIGHT, which is even greater than the "decisive" result in the referendum. Assuming these numbers continue, and I see no reason to suppose the immense difficulties are going to suddenly disappear, it is hard to see the House of Commons allowing the final deal through without another referendum.

This for me is one indication that opinion is slowly starting to change. I last covered this in September (HERE) but now I am beginning to move from wishful thinking to cautious optimism that people are seeing through the lies. In 2019 or 2020 if opinion is clearly and consistently opposed to Brexit would any government go through with it?  It would be political suicide wouldn't it?

Incidentally, for the first time I see this covered in a national newspaper (HERE).