On Monday it will be six weeks since Theresa May went to Brussels for an unscheduled meeting with Juncker and Barnier to try and unblock the talks. She pleaded with the EU27 on the 19th October but at the summit they concluded there hadn't been sufficient progress. The press release afterwards called for talks to be "accelerated". There were just two days of talks on the 9th and 10th November and following that, no breakthrough.
Barnier warned that the UK needed to provide more clarity on the three issues otherwise they would not be able to move to trade talks in December. Last week she was told by Donald Tusk in Downing Street that there were two weeks left to make firm offers on the three issues.
Earlier this week reports appear that we are about to increase the money but we need guarantees of trade talks. There are murmurings of optimism but no indication of any firm offers. The Irish border problem, if anything, looks even more difficult with Ireland saying the only solution is for the North to remain in the customs union. The DUP explicitly rule it out and so does Downing Street.
Yesterday, against this background Mrs May yesterday went to Brussels for an EU summit, met EU leaders once again and what do we get? Another warning that we have just ten days, the deadline being moved from the end of November to the 4th December, to "improve" our offer (HERE) with Tusk saying we need to do more on the divorce bill, citizens rights and the Irish border. The PM tells us there has been "progress" but it's very hard to see where.
For me, the Irish border problem is the most serious, most intractable one. The money will be a climb down and prompt a furious row here in the UK but it can be done quickly. Citizens rights seem close, if we have to make more concessions on the ECJ, this again is quickly done. But the Irish border needs a miracle. Simon Jenkins (HERE) in The Guardian believes the only solution is for Northern Ireland to remain in the customs union and if we do not want a border in the Irish Sea, the UK will also have to remain. And his logic is that if we accept this position, we may as well remain in the EU.
But it seems to me that the last six weeks have been a total waste of time. The EU are saying at the end exactly what they were saying at the beginning. Nothing has changed.
