Roger Bootle from Capital Economics often writes in The Telegraph, usually completely delusional stuff about Brexit and the strength of our economy. He wrote such a column yesterday (HERE) contrasting the political turmoil (his word) with the economic reality. What he knows about reality could easily fit on the back of a postage stamp. He is also urging the government to stand firm and refuse to pay any money "for access to the single market".
He seems to think, along with many if not all Brexiteers, that the money they have been discussing in Brussels - or not discussing might be closer to the mark - is for access to the internal market. It is not. It is a settling of the accounts of the past. Bootle claims there is nothing in the Lisbon Treaty that obliges us to pay money to withdraw. I am sure this is true. But neither is there anything that obliges the EU to give us a trade or any other kind of deal. Since we need a deal, even if just a transition or a basic deal on aviation matters for example, and far more than the EU, it's obvious we will have to pay. The amount is paltry in relation to the potential cost of no deal whatsoever which would seriously hit our economy for far more.
And anyway, who would trust the UK ever again after the PM explicitly says we will "honour our commitments", only to walk away without doing so?
Mr Bootle's delusions, however egregious, are nothing compared to Economists for Brexit, led by the nutter Patrick Minford. They are forecasting a £65 billion "windfall" if the Chancellor "grabs the opportunity" (HERE). Without reading the report I know it will involve unilaterally dropping all tariffs and, as a result, eliminating manufacturing in this country, something he openly admits. This is Minford's philosophy.
I have to say this is a continuation of the search for a quick-fix answer to our productivity and trade gap problem that people who don't understand the issue keep looking for. Don't invest in education or infrastructure. Don't look to design and manufacture the best, so that other countries are encouraged to buy British. Instead of the long, slow investment led process that Germany has used for the last century, go for a falling exchange rate to reduce prices, or cut employment and environmental regulations, slash tariffs. Anything except address the real problem. When will we learn?
