Where to begin with a rundown of the weekend's news? I suppose I should start with the "secret" letter from Johnson and Gove to Mrs May (HERE) setting out their terms for Brexit and talking about "clarifying the minds" of cabinet colleagues. This from two of the cloudiest minds in Downing Street. An unnamed cabinet minister described it as Orwellian. It shows just how fractured the cabinet is.
MPs start to debate the Withdrawal Bill again in parliament this week. David Davis has written an article in The Times (HERE) more or less putting the blame on rebel MPs if our exit from the EU turns out disastrously - as it inevitably will. He is absolving himself of blame before the bill has been passed. But the debate takes place place against a backdrop of an increasingly chaotic government (HERE). Some rebel MPs are plotting to remove her while others are plotting to amend or block the bill itself.
With Davis saying on national TV yesterday (HERE) that Britain will not give either a figure or a formula to calculate the figure for the so called Brexit bill, I think we can safely assume there will be no move to the second phase before February or March next year, if then.
The EU are not going to concede this point. It would represent a massive humiliation and giving up the strong position that they enjoy. No doubt some countries will push for a softer line but most will not. If trade talks do not start very soon there will be no chance of getting any transition deal agreed and banks and businesses will begin to trigger relocation plans - all of which will benefit the EU. They don't need the deal, at least not as badly as we do.
Sky News asks if the smile will ever leave Davis' face (HERE). In a long working life I have met a lot of men like David Davis. Bags of ego, oozing confidence, they have absolutely mighty self-belief. But as the old saying goes, if you aren't panicking, you don't understand the problem. Too often the confidence comes from ignorance. When it all goes disastrously wrong he will point to the problems that everyone told him about but he ignored at the time.
Again he tells us there might be a no deal deal, saying (HERE), “If we’re at this point with no deal, we’ll know it’s coming for a while and we’ll take measures [to secure] a bare bones deal or a minimalist deal". In other words talks will restart immediately after they've just broken down. The no breakdown breakdown. This will be similar to the no border border that he is designing for Ireland and the no jursidiction jurisdiction role of the ECJ. It's all so easy on paper isn't it?
Business is pressing for a transition period and is growing increasingly concerned. If a few large companies announce plans in the first quarter, Davis and the government will come under enormous pressure and the climb down will probably cause the government to fall.
And Fintan O'Toole, a respected columnist on The Irish Times has an opinion piece in The Observer about the way Brexiteers are able to ignore reality by pretending they haven't heard the question (HERE). It's about Britain's place in the world post Brexit and we'll worth reading.
