Well those who forecast no breakthrough at yesterday's press conference in Brussels were proved depressingly right (HERE). This was to close the sixth round of talks but it might just as well have been the close of the fifth or the fourth round. In fact everyone could have saved the travel cost and just replayed TV coverage of the earlier press conferences. It was like groundhog Day.
It's hard to discern the UK strategy here unless it is to simply baffle the other side.
One can only sympathise with Michel Barnier. Mrs May said in Florence we would honour the commitments made during our membership and Davis said this had brought a new dynamic to the talks. But inexplicably we won't say what we think our Commitments are! No matter how many different ways Barnier asks or what languages he uses, Davis just ignores him and presses for the EU to show flexibility and begin trade talks straightaway.
The loony Brexiteers are pressing Mrs May not to offer more money (HERE). John Redwood, speaking about Michel Barnier said, "I don’t mind what deadlines he sets. I don’t want the Government to offer them any money at all. One of the things we voted for is to pay for our priorities with our own money.”
He doesn't seem to know we are borrowing over £50 billion a year so it's hardly our own money!
Anyway Barnier has now given what amounts to an ultimatum. Spell it out or we won't move on to trade talks in December.
The government apparently intends to appeal to the other EU leaders (HERE) to allow trade talks to start in December but we will only be emphasising "concessions" we've already made and the mutual benefit of beginning talks on future trade. I don't think this will work. The EU have repeatedly said the concessions aren't enough and they can extend the talks if necessary so they don't need to worry about when trade talks start. I am not even sure this amounts to anything as grand as a strategy.
And according to this report (HERE) the Irish border issue is another huge stumbling block. The EU proposed Northern Ireland remain in the single market and customs union but Davis expressly ruled that out, still preferring to rely on an invisible border built by fairies in the middle of the night of March 28th 2019.
Perhaps Davis accepts Peter Lilley's belief that a trade deal will only take ten minutes and he wants to keep things going until September next year when the EU will give in, sit down and agree a trade deal on a wet Tuesday afternoon in Brussels. I suppose if you're deluded you might as well go for broke.
It looks like there won't be sufficient progress in December and the clock will continue to tick. If we do concede we are going to look absolutely stupid.
