We are rapidly approaching the denouement of the first phase of talks. The EU is - according to this report (HERE) in The Guardian - warning again that time is running out. They say we have a month to come up with concessions. It seems to focus on money but as far as I can see there is still no meeting of minds on the ECJ role in guaranteeing citizens rights. And as for any proposals at all on the invisible Irish border, nothing at all.
After eight months this is the meagre progress. It really doesn't give anyone confidence that even if trade talks do start next year, there is the foundation of goodwill and trust to allow even the bare outlines of a deal by March 2019.
This present impasse is a trial of strength. Our side is already complaining the EU have made no concessions. There seems to be a plan to try and force Brussels to bend on their red lines. This is the kind of thinking that coloured the campaign and afterwards. That they need us more than we need them. It is perhaps the moment when we discover whether they do or not and whether we can indeed have our cake and eat it too.
So, it's important for both sides. In my opinion we will either persist in the fantasy that we are an equal partner with the EU and offer no concessions in which case trade talks will not start in January. Or we will accept the inevitable and thus burst forever the Brexiteers bubble about our importance post Brexit.
The Guardian article claims they have a leaked eight page document from the EU with preparations for a future trade deal with the UK. It apparently confirms that it will be impossible for the UK to get a finished trade deal by March 2019. It is also said to reveal the size of the task to agree a transition and future deal that covers trade, security, defence and foreign policy asking how the EU can “ensure a level playing field” to stop the UK gaining an unfair advantage, by either subsidising industry or undercutting the EU on environmental, welfare and labour standards. This is a key point this week when the US trade secretary Wilbur Ross told the CBI we would have to drop many EU regulations if we want a partnership with the USA. If we do this, we will lose trade with the EU.
This is probably our future. To be ground down like a grain of wheat in a trade war between the US and the EU.
