The Irish border problem is proving at least as difficult as the money issue and in many ways, more so (HERE). The money is only a problem for the hard Brexiteers. It could be found in an instant if the political will is there. But a solution to the border in Ireland is as far away now as it ever was. The government's position paper (HERE) called for "detailed engagement" and "agreeing principles". It sets out what an invisible, frictionless border should achieve in the same way that H G Wells set out the principles of a time machine in his famous book.
It's extremely easy to describe but designing a means of time travel in practice has proven beyond us and so it seems has the invisible border.
The problem has been rumbling away in the background for months. The UK government thought the issue has been "parked" until trade talks started since they believe the border and trade are inseparable. It is now coming to a head, along with the money.
During last week's round of negotiations the UK side learned that the Irish position is for Northern Ireland or even the whole of the UK to remain in the customs union (HERE). This surprised our negotiators apparently. I think it demonstrates how difficult and contentious the whole subject is. Theresa Villiers, former Northern Ireland Secretary was on the radio yesterday morning saying the British government had set out "credible" proposals this summer in a position paper. It is a fantasy wish list for an invisible border that simply will not work in any practical way. They are not at all credible.
An Irish minister was on the same item on Radio 4. He had met Boris Johnson recently to discuss the issue. Johnson asked him to put pressure on Europe to move on to trade. The minister had to gently point out to him Ireland WAS Europe! He also emphasized that the UK had agreed to the sequencing but now wanted to talk trade before the separation in clear breach of what we had agreed.
I cannot honestly see that trade talks can start in December. Eight months will have been spent simply finding out which are the main points of disagreement with no progress whatsoever in resolving them. It would serve our purposes to move onto trade and leave the border issue open or with a few principles agreed but I do not believe there is any appetite in the EU to allow this. The border must determine the trading arrangements not the other way round.
The separation issues were supposedly the easy bits. Trade we are told will be far more difficult and take far longer. My guess is we will still be in the customs union and the single market by 2025 -. and probably far longer than that. It will infuriate the Brexiteers but the alternative will be to crash the economy. Either way, at some point public opinion will change. Every day we learn something new. It is like a voyage of discovery about the EU, what it does and how it does it. The myths are being systematically debunked and this is all good - for remainers.
