So, despite the optimism yesterday morning it wasn't possible to reach an agreement in Brussels (HERE) although Juncker thinks it's still possible to do so by the 15th of this month when EU leaders meet. I wouldn't be so sure. If the DUP object to what was almost agreed yesterday you can be sure the Irish government and the EU will object to what will almost be agreed next week. It was a humiliation for the PM who had gone to sign the agreement and even booked several hours of parliamentary time today to announce it.
I think it's clear who is pulling the strings. Juncker described May as a tough negotiator but it seems she is swinging in the wind, directionless, buffeted first this way and then another. If it's not the EU it's the DUP, or her own rabid Brexiteers in cabinet and on the back benches. For herself, May claimed there were one or two issues to resolve as if the disagreement was with Juncker, when it plainly wasn't.
A hard border is unacceptable to both sides, so let's rule that out straightaway. A soft border can only happen for certain if there is "regulatory alignment" on both sides. The UK persist in the idea that some sort of technological solution can be found but nobody knows how that would work. The Irish were rather clever in preparing a text that began, "In the absence of an agreed solution" then regulatory alignment was to be maintained according to the partially leaked draft. This should have been acceptable if we and the DUP were confident there was a technical solution. I assume we knew there wasn't one so regulatory alignment was the default position.
But this meant either:
- NI remaining in the CU and SM - unacceptable to the DUP, OR
- The UK remaining in the CU and SM - unacceptable to the Brexiteers
It is difficult to see how this can be resolved. The technological solution is unacceptable to the EU and Ireland since they cannot see how it could work. It's also difficult to see how the UK is going to produce detailed proposals for an invisible solution that will convince them in a day or two. The UK government has consistently raised this for months but never with any details so I assume they do not have one.
The present impasse on the easier separation issues has brought us to the point where the integrity of the UK itself looks at risk. Scotland and London are both demanding a degree of regulatory alignment with European law to match that offered to Northern Ireland and a break up looks slightly more of a possibility than it did before. Public opinion must be affected by it all and surely not in favour of Brexit.
If the polls do begin to change I feel sorry for the politicians like Jeremy Hunt and Caroline Flint, who voted to remain but now support Brexit. How are they to reconcile their public positions with a different mood amongst the electorate? Are they going to switch back to remain? If so they will look mighty stupid.
There is a lot of speculation this morning about the "deal" that was nearly made in Brussels yesterday. Sky News (HERE) hit the nail on the head with a headline about the UK continuing to negotiate with itself. I think it's clear it was scuppered by the DUP but it demonstrates how difficult it is going to be to get an agreement on the Irish border.
Simon Coveney, Ireland's foreign minister, has now said, "But we don’t want to give the impression the Irish government is going to reverse away from the deal we felt we had in place and agreed yesterday."
Simon Coveney, Ireland's foreign minister, has now said, "But we don’t want to give the impression the Irish government is going to reverse away from the deal we felt we had in place and agreed yesterday."
While David Jones MP and former DEXEU minister told the BBC, "I don’t think [regulatory alignment] should be there because I think the problem that we will have is trying to strike free trade agreements around the world". It's hard to see how a fudge is going to resolve this one.
