Monday 4 December 2017

POLLING

I don't usually supply links to any Daily Mail articles because I think it's a hate filled rag, but The Mail on Sunday has a different editor, George Greig not Paul Dacre, and is sympathetic to the remain cause. They commissioned polling (HERE) that shows half the population now believes a second referendum should be held, a 16 point lead over those who don't.

I think this is more significant than the article perhaps admits since the figures indicate, in my opinion, that it is being driven by remainers or regretful leavers.  Otherwise, why do we need a second vote at all?  The people spoke on June 23rd last year didn't they?

Die hard leavers don't want another vote I'm sure. There is a big risk last year's result will be overturned so they want to avoid it at all costs.

No, the only people who want a re-run are remainers, regretful leavers and possibly a small number of leavers who think a second vote would put the result beyond question and perhaps end the argument for a generation or more.

There has not been a YouGov poll carried out since November 8th so one is due anytime now. The last one showed a majority (46%) of the population now think the vote to leave the EU was a mistake while a minority (42%) still thought it was right. I am anxious to see what the next poll brings now that the £50 billion figure is out in the public consciousness. I expect this to change minds but it will be interesting to see how it plays out.

Update: The talks in Brussels on 4th December didn't quite work out as planned and there is still no solution to the Irish border problem. If this also doesn't begin to change minds I would be very surprised. Look out for a big shift around Christmas.