Wednesday 13 December 2017

POLLING - MORE EVIDENCE

More polling from YouGov in the Whatukthinks series tracking if people think the decision to leave the EU was right or wrong. Once again, WRONG is in the lead (HERE) albeit by a reduced figure of just 1%. The fieldwork was done on 10th and 11th of December, so quite recently.

I am not particularly concerned, although I would have hoped it would have been a wider margin. The £40 billion divorce bill was known as was the Irish border problem but probably not that well. Sometimes these things take a while to seep into the public consciousness, but I remain convinced that they will eventually.

Nevertheless, we are now looking at five months and eleven polls since RIGHT was in the lead (11th July 2017). The last seven polls show a clear lead for WRONG and I am still confident there will never again be a lead for RIGHT. There are always swings and I think (and hope!) that the last poll represents what you might expect but the trend is still against Brexit. It would indeed be amazing to see an increase in support for Brexit as the adverse impact and problems become ever clearer. The British may be innocently gullible sometimes but they are not masochists.

As a summary look how things have changed:

Position up to 21st April 2017

Total No of polls : 27
RIGHT : 22
WRONG : 1
EVEN : 4

Position since 21st April 2017

Total No of polls : 22
RIGHT : 5
WRONG : 13
EVEN : 4

The previous poll was on 8th November so more than one month between that and the most recent. It is therefore likely that other polls will come out shortly and we'll see what they say. Watch this space.