Thursday 14 December 2017

THE TRADE DEAL FRAMEWORK IS ALREADY KNOWN

In terms of the trade deal the UK is to negotiate with the EU, this article (HERE) effectively makes it clear that the framework for the terms of the final deal are already set and it won't be a deep and special relationship. We know we will not be in the EEA or the customs union. Neither will we be like Norway or Switzerland, they pay into the EU budget and accept freedom of movement, and we have effectively ruled those things out.

We have asked for Canada plus, plus, plus. But the EU are hemmed in by the terms of the existing FTAs. If we are offered better terms, other countries will demand the same under most favoured nation (MFN) or WTO non discrimination rules.

All these things are channeling us into a plain old CETA type FTA and since we are asking for the right to diverge from EU rules, we are likely to get a CETA minus, minus deal and take a long to negotiate it.