I have to confess I have always thought that Brexit shouldn't be reversed by referendum unless there was a very high probability of getting a really big majority - say at least 60/40. Otherwise the divisions will just continue and perhaps even become even more bitter. Anand Menon (HERE) makes exactly this argument.
Anand Menon is director of the UK in a Changing Europe and professor of European politics and foreign affairs, King’s College London. This is a comment of his from the article:
Leave aside the questions as to what a reversal will do to trust in government and politics in general among leave voters. Leavers would not simply accept the result and give up. Rather, we would confront something akin to a political groundhog day. We would wake up to Ukip polling well above 20%. To the Conservatives hopelessly divided and held to ransom by Brexiters. To Labour triangulating, attempting to hold on to both pro-Brexit and pro-remain seats. Amid the bitterness and the rancour, we would poison the EU from within, while the debate at home rages about the need for a definitive vote to settle the score.
The problem is that those people who think the EU have held us back and that somehow we will soar away afterwards will never be convinced unless a disaster actually happens. Some people wouldn't be convinced even if we were reduced to subsistence farming and living entirely on raw parsnips but hopefully they're in the minority.
When first starting this blog I wrote in the "about" section:
I believe Brexit is going to come. Indeed it must come. Nothing less will be able to convince those who voted to leave the EU that we were actually better off inside the largest, closest and richest trading bloc on earth. The economy must take a bit of damage. But we do need to begin now the long hard road to obtain a new referendum as soon as politically possible to take us back in. The annual increase in younger people joining the electorate and being far more pro-EU than older voters will bring about a balance quicker than we might think.
To this end an article in The New European by Nick Tyrone (HERE) this week explains how the writer, a dedicated remainers, argues a hard Brexit would do the job quicker and more effectively. I don't necessarily subscribe to that but perhaps he has a point. If a hard Brexit even began to look like a possibility companies would probably up sticks and be off, or at least threaten to. This would have a salutary effect on many leave voters.
It's the polls that will finally begin to tell us when Brexit can be reversed.
