A nice summary (HERE) of the position yesterday as the EU Council rubber stamped the transition deal and gave a green light to start trade negotiations. While some Brexiteers welcomed the "progress" others were complaining of a "sell out". This I think tells us everything we need to know. Brexiteers themselves still have no idea what they want. We were told Brexit would be a liberation and we would soar away to untold riches, away from the wicked EU. Now some Brexiteers want us to leave whatever the cost.
Theresa May is hailing the transition deal but the EU are saying nothing is agreed until everything is agreed, meaning the transition is still not legally watertight. Meanwhile, the FT are reporting that some financial companies will trigger staff moves next month. Looking at the U turns the government made in the week or so before the deal was agreed, it is clear the transition deal is crucial for us. We have no preparations to leave next March and are desperate to see the transition extended out to December 2020.
Now let us imagine what is going to happen over the next six months. From a terribly weak position we have made things even worse for ourselves by arguing and delaying over trivia as well as the 2017 general election. As the end date approaches we will accept more and more of the EU's positions. Concessions that we have made up to now will seem like nothing compared to what is coming.
If we spend too long trying to get some bespoke deal just short of Norway's access while retaining Canada's freedom of action we will simply run out of time. Twenty one months is nowhere near long enough to tackle the deepest and most complex trade deal ever struck - even assuming the EU want that, which they don't - so unless we go for the EFTA/EEA option like Norway, something off the shelf, we will be begging for another extension after December 2020 with all the consequences that flow from it.
The utter lack of realism on our part is what has led Mrs May into all the U turns so far. Unless we come to our senses expect many more U turns across our own red lines.
This article in The Spectator is worth a read. Tom Goodenough (HERE) writes that Brexit's progress is "defying the doom mongers". This is rather like Captain Smith on The Titanic, in the hours after colliding with the iceberg, declaring that all is going extremely well.
