A cabinet minister is suggesting the UK won't put up a border in Northern Ireland even if we leave without a deal (HERE), as if daring the EU to try. I don't think this is an option for the UK since all other members of the WTO will demand the same border-less access to the UK that Ireland and the EU would have. Under the Most Favoured Nation rule that says you cannot discriminate between countries.
They would have barrier free access to the UK market but without giving reciprocal access to their markets. And in that case, why would any country need to sign any Free Trade Agreements? This is my understanding of how it might work.
And last night it was said Mrs May intends to tell the EU today in her road to Brexit speech that Britain will stick closely to the EU acquis but reserve the right to diverge in the future. This is because the government does not have the parliamentary numbers to force through a hard Brexit.
I think this is a fundamental misreading of the EU. It is not just harmonised regulations as the government seems to believe, it is also the supervisory and enforcement mechanisms with the ECJ as a judicial backstop. I think the EU response will be swift and it will be negative. They are sure to say outside the EU single market and the customs union a third country is free to do as it likes with its own regulations, but it won't confer any special access if it mirrors EU regulations. It might make a FTA easier to agree and perhaps a bit quicker but we will remain a third country whatever happens.
And if you are a third country like Canada for instance, even with a comprehensive FTA, you will still face rules of origin, customs procedures, quotas and all the other non tariff barriers that add friction to trade and make it less likely. You can see this on the Canadian government trade commissioners website (HERE).
Peter Leary has a nice article in The Guardian (HERE) which claims there are just three ways out of the Irish border problem:
Peter Leary has a nice article in The Guardian (HERE) which claims there are just three ways out of the Irish border problem:
- A united Ireland
- A special arrangement to keep both side of the border in customs and regulatory union
- Keeping the whole of the UK in customs and regulatory alignment with Ireland
But as he says, none of these options are available to Mrs May. They would all destroy her premiership - and one of them probably will.
