Saturday 10 March 2018

THE QUIET BEFORE THE STORM

We are now less than two weeks away from the EU summit on 23rd March but there is a quiet before the storm. Tusk has said the talks cannot really progress until the Irish border issue is resolved and Davis has admitted there are "about" eleven points of disagreement yet we see no sign of the shuttle diplomacy or late night negotiations. One wonders what, if anything, is happening behind the scenes.



Are all the points close to being settled or is an almighty row brewing?  I really don't know.

But the government seems entirely relaxed about it all. Last week they quietly released a note about "Other Separation Issues" (HERE) which almost looks as if they don't care. We constantly hear Brexiteers talking about walking away without a deal if the EU are difficult about it, with even BoJo only this week saying we shouldn't be afraid of trading under WTO rules. The chancellor tells us real money is being spent on contingency planning for a no deal outcome. 

But on the DEXEU website we get a technical note which says this:

With the exception of a small number of separation issues (for example cases pending before the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU)), the UK’s view is that the future economic and security partnership the UK and the EU agree will supersede the individual positions the UK and the EU reach for “Other Separation Issues”.

In other words - don't worry about all this detailed stuff on separation because it will all be "sorted out" later. How very British this is. The EU are busy putting out Notices to Stakeholders advising them that the UK will shortly become a third country, Holland is recruiting up to 930 new customs and border staff but our reaction is to push the problem further down the road.

One of the issues is Euratom where our stated position apparently is the "to maintain a close and effective relationship with the Euratom Community and the rest of the world that harnesses the UK’s and the Euratom Community’s expertise and maximises shared interests". This is the same Euratom organisation Mrs May in her 29th March 2017 Article 50 letter, advised we would leave. It is still cake and eat it time in Whitehall.

Update: The newspapers do not appear to be unduly concerned and there are no opinion pieces suggesting that we might not reach an agreement on withdrawal or a transition. An exception is this item by Faisal Islam HERE. He rightly says business is desperate to get some certainty.