There are a couple of pieces in today's papers which are well worth a read. The first (HERE) by Nick Cohen (always highly readable on Brexit) is about the bullshit right as he calls it, those with a disdain for details who treat government as a joke (Davis and Johnson I hope you read this) and follows neatly on from my post this morning. Another is by Nick Rawnsley (HERE) about the difficulty Mrs May will have in uniting the nation, mainly due to her own inept performance so far.
But I think they both point to an emerging truth. The PM could not have made Friday's Mansion House speech in 2016 because of the howls of protest that would have come from the Brexiteers and the right wing press. The partial erasing of red lines, the talk of compromise and hard facts would have been incendiary. And yet this weekend all seems calm, even Jacob Rees-Mogg is quiescent. Why so?
I think the answer lies in Brussels. Throughout the twenty months since the referendum they have been steadfast and calm, behaving in the main like statesmen. Barnier in particular has been particularly impressive. By standing four square behind the single market, the customs union and the EU acquis they have defended it's integrity and maintained exactly the same position since day one. The four freedoms are indivisible, you cannot cherry pick and it is up to the UK to choose. As Cohen puts it we can have sovereignty or prosperity but not both. This we have stubbornly refused to do. At first there was the belief that we could enjoy all the trade benefits of the single market and the customs union without being in the EU at all. As is becoming clearer by the day, this is not possible.
By remaining solid the EU have finally started to get the message through but it is still not quite there. Talking of the three baskets approach, a customs " partnership" and associate membership of EU agencies show an outbreak of realism has arrived although not yet quite enough of it. The next stage in Britain's education about the EU will come this week when negotiating guidelines on the future trading relationship will be published. This will be a CETA style deal like Canada and not much more.
Once this becomes public it will be possible to begin to estimate the damage to our economy. When it becomes clear the future deal will not contain any possible solution to the Irish border problem and will create border checks and delays at Dover and every other port in the country, hitting the car industry as well as food and agriculture there will be another step along the learning curve. This will provoke more outrage among the Brexiteers.
But once again they will be forced to address reality.
I have always thought that the British people are wise enough to reach the right decision given the truth. As the truth peeps out from under a mountain of wishful thinking opinion will change. I doubt by the end of the year there will be a majority for leaving the EU. That's my prediction.
