Gibraltar is now coming up the pile of difficulties with The Telegraph reporting Barnier as saying he expected the UK to "cave in" to Spanish demands over the rock (HERE). The fact that Spain has an effective veto over the withdrawal agreement and the transition does not help us. We have made virtually no preparations for exiting without an agreement and the closer we get to March 29th the more obvious this will become.
Spain are demanding various concessions over Gibraltar including shared control of the airport. Barnier meanwhile talks about the leverage that the EU have given to Spain over the rock.
So, on the topic of leverage, last week the EU issued its latest Notice to Stakeholders about the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) and the impact of Britain's decision to become a third country (HERE). The sheer impact on the aviation sector alone is stunning. Listen to the list of certifications issued by the UK that will no longer be valid after March 2019 when we become a "third country":
Certificates of airworthiness, restricted certificates of airworthiness, permits to fly, approvals of organisations responsible for the maintenance of products, parts and appliances, approvals for organisations responsible for the manufacture of products, parts and appliances, approvals for maintenance training organisations, and certificates for personnel responsible for the release of a product, part or appliance after maintenance, issued pursuant to Article 5 of the Basic Regulation;
Pilot licences, pilot medical certificates, certificates for pilot training organisations, certificates for aero-medical centres, certificates for flight simulation training devices, certificates for persons responsible for providing flight training, flight simulation training or assessing pilots' skill, and certificates for aero medical examiners, issued pursuant to Article 7 of the Basic Regulation;
Certificates for air operators and attestations for the cabin crew, issued pursuant to Article 8 of the Basic Regulation;
Certificates for aerodromes, certificates for ATM/ANS providers, licences and medical certificates for air traffic controllers, certificates for air traffic controller training organisations, certificates for aero medical centres and aero medical examiners responsible for air traffic controllers, certificates for persons responsible for providing practical training or assessing the skills of air traffic controllers, issued pursuant to Articles 8a, 8b and 8c of the Basic Regulation.
These impacts will be mitigated to an extent by the withdrawal agreement and the transition deal. But Spain has a veto over it. It's hard to see any British government deciding to throw the aviation business, airlines, passengers, manufacturers and everything and everybody connected with it into chaos in exchange for protecting Gibraltar.
Bear in mind that Gibraltar has about the same population as Billericay - about 35,000. Ironically, 96% of the electorate voted to remain. If I lived there I would be worried.
