Monday 16 April 2018

THE PEOPLE'S VOTE

MPs from all the main parties have launched a campaign to give people a vote on the final deal (HERE) and it may well succeed. I signed up and made a small donation - the total at the time was £7400 but we'll see how much they finally get - although I am not entirely convinced it is a good idea. First of all, there is still a huge risk that enough people would vote to accept whatever deal the government comes back with. Secondly, it's not clear how the "vote" would be organised. Would there be a multiple choice of accepting the deal, leaving without one or remaining? 

The details of the final trade deal (which is the one I assume we are talking about) won't be known until the middle of 2020 at the earliest and quite possibly not until 2025 or so, by which time we will have technically left the EU and, if we voted to remain, we would have to renegotiate our way back in. Admittedly, things won't have changed very much even if the transition period has to be extended once or twice but I don't underestimate the problem of doing so and getting the same terms as we have now. 

The EU will have entered a new Multi Annual Financial Framework and trying to get back in will create a lot of difficulties.

Even if the remain option manages to get on the ballot paper and even if this option wins, the leave side is unlikely to accept it and will continue to agitate for a new Brexit. Of course, it will be much harder the second time around but this wouldn't stop them trying.

But if the vote is to accept the deal, we have to forget any chance of rejoining the EU for a generation at least, perhaps several generations. The stakes would be very high indeed.

In The New European there is a piece in the Mandrake column about Paul Dacre, editor of The Daily Mail. He is supposed to have told his leutenants there is no turning back on Brexit. A staff member is alleged to have said, "Paul's in it now to the bitter end", adding glumly that "It's death or glory for the whole lot of us". Think about it. The main Brexit cheerleader in the right wing press is going to go on shouting and arguing for it even as the whole mess comes crashing down.

Dacre is rather like that other hero of the Rothermere's - one A Hitler. Lord Rothermere, owner of The Daily Mail, wrote to Adolf in 1939, "My Dear Führer, I have watched with understanding and interest the progress of your great and superhuman work in regenerating your country."  Even as the Russians were knocking on the door of the Reich Chancellery in April 1945, Hitler still believed it was death or glory.  Fortunately for us it was the former, as indeed we hope it is for The Daily Mail.