Saturday 14 April 2018

POLL 60 IN WHATUKTHINKS SERIES

The most recent poll in the YouGov, WhatUKthinks series has just been published this afternoon (HERE). It's the 60th and once again shows a lead for WRONG this time by 3%. This is in answer to the question: In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the EU?

The first 27 polls beginning in August 2016 up to April 2017 had RIGHT in front 22 times with 4 polls level and just the single one showing WRONG in the lead.

Now in the last 27 polls back to the end of May 2017, WRONG was in front 21 times, with 4 polls level and just two showing RIGHT in the lead.

If this doesn't indicate a solid swing in favour of REMAIN I don't know what does.

It's pretty clear to me that the changeover occurred last May/June when Theresa May called the election. I think people rejected the call for a strong mandate amid all the talk of a hard Brexit.

Every week some new problem comes up, a new insight appears into the difficulties ahead while the apparent prize, always a bit nebulous and flaky anyway, seems to grow more faint and distant. Eating food we don't want as the economy suffers in an insecure and uncertain world suddenly doesn't look quite so attractive - to more and more people.

An agenda for next week's negotiations has been published (HERE) with Wednesday 18th being earmarked for the coordinators meeting on Northern Ireland. I think we may be about to see the first crunch point.