Friday 27 April 2018

THE BREXIT REFORMATION

I confess I am beginning to worry that in the UK we are entering a sort of modern reformation with Brussels replacing Catholic Rome as the all encompassing bogeyman. The next few months will be crucial. Brexiteers are divided among themselves about what they actually want (HERE) and are deeply mistrustful of the government's motives and the ability of Mrs May to unite the nation behind any particular type of Brexit. Whatever happens remainers will not be alone in their unhappiness. Most leavers will also be unhappy.

The reasons people voted to leave are many and varied. To stop immigration, to shake off suffocating EU regulations, to regain sovereignty and to open up trade deals with the rest of the world. But even among these broad categories there are even more specific and nuanced reasons that many individuals held. There were 17,410,742 people who voted for Brexit and thousands, perhaps even millions, of hoped for Brexit destinations. But there can only be one. Many people, and I think most, are bound to be disappointed.

As we reach the end game, the choices are going to become clearer. There will be no more road left to kick the can down. Hard decisions, long delayed, will soon have to be made and Brexiteers will be ferocious in their attacks if we do not make a clean but suicidal break with the EU - and even more ferocious if we do and it then turns out badly.

One can easily imagine as things go from bad to worse, the motives of the EU, already highly suspect, will be a target for every conspiracy theorist. To align yourself with Brussels is to be accused of treason now, what will it be like in 2020? The anger of Brexiteers at the government's failure to deliver their own specific, individual and highly personalised version of Brexit will turn on those who they will accuse of thwarting it and those who supported and aided the thwarting. Will we have to build remainer holes in which to hide from the Brexit thought police? 

Brexit is akin to a religion. There are those who believe in Brussels and those who don't. Those who have faith in a shared future and those who fear the foreigner. Brussels cannot understand Brexit and Brexiteers cannot understand Brussels. There is no common ground or meeting of minds. 

The "close friendship" that Brexiteers talk about is cherry picking to the EU. Blocking the cherry picking is being awkward to the Brexiteer. I can see a lot of trouble ahead.