Confirming a recent report in The Telegraph, Bloomberg (HERE) are now saying UK officials are talking about an extension to the transition period during which we would remain in "the" customs union. But whereas The Telegraph said this would be until 2023, Bloomberg are claiming it would be for another four or five years. They rightly say this news will be "explosive" among Brexiteers. Remember, a year ago there wasn't even talk of a two year transition period! We were going to leave in March next year.
There will now follow a denial by the UK government, a lot of shouting from Liam Fox, Brexiteers and the right wing media and then eventually a grudging acceptance that a longer transition period is inevitable.
In an article recently, Peter Foster, The Telegraph's Europe editor, said (HERE) the ratchet is tightening on the government.
A ratchet is perhaps a good analogy for the negotiations. Brexit is going to take a very long time, perhaps ten years or more. But think about it. Leaving involves many far reaching changes to our legal and constitutional settlement as well as trade and the economy. Yet, we could stop it and return to the status quo at almost any point simply by flicking the ratchet pawl.
Potential accession countries like Turkey have to painstakingly work through the 35 chapters needed to join the EU, but we are already compliant. I don't minimise the political issue of rejoining. This remains a massive obstacle, but if a second referendum were to be held, we could simply pick up where we left off and it could all happen very quickly. Don't despair.
