Thursday 3 May 2018

EXPERTS

There is a Guardian editorial about the Irish border HERE and Mrs May's pursuit of a solution that simply does not exist. She must have had advisers who told her that there was some magic, highly technical but complex solution that could be made to work and I assume she must also have also listened to experts who said no such solution was possible.

The border problem isn't the topic of this blog post but it is this British attitude to experts that I find interesting. Because Mrs May clearly rejected the opinion of the experts.

I have worked with many European companies over forty years. There is a particular trait that I think existed in every one as far as I can remember and that is having experts in specific fields who are appointed, given responsibility and respected. If there is a chief mechanical engineer or designer for example, that person has total control. Nothing happens on any machine design including component selection or assembly method without the knowledge and approval of that senior person. The same with electronic, electrical or software. Each area is under the exclusive control of an expert.

Everyone defers to that person. They accept their own knowledge and understanding is not as great as the expert. The expert's instructions are followed without question. They have the responsibility and are respected. If they are wrong, they're dismissed but while in post they are in charge.

In Britain however, the attitude is totally different. It is to believe the opinion of non experts is worth the same as that of the expert. This is the Gove position. Or the service engineer who never bothers to read instructions but does his own thing, often wrongly. Usually, there are many more non experts than experts and therefore a belief that because more people think a particular thing is right, it must be right. There is no self doubt, no questioning of the perceived wisdom of the crowd. The voice of the expert is drowned out. The result is a lot of confusion with the loudest voice being thought the wisest. Almost always, it's the opposite.

This process gives rise to two crucial self reinforcing effects. First, the expert loses confidence and begins to doubt his own ability. Of course, sometimes he has no ability or not very much, but whatever confidence he had is eroded. But secondly, the responsibility for any particular decision is diluted. If the crowd's wisdom is wrong who is to blame? If everyone is to blame, then no one can be blamed. When it all goes wrong, the non experts melt away muttering that they aren't experts. Often the expert carries the can anyway - because he couldn't convince the crowd they were wrong!

Brexit is exactly this.

You can be 100% sure when it all goes horribly wrong the people will not blame themselves. At the moment we are still in the "will of the people" phase, but soon we will be in the "what a disaster" phase. But don't doubt that it will be the politicians who will be blamed, or that they will try to deflect blame onto the experts who, they will say, advised them badly or executed Brexit badly. Leavers will never accept that Brexit and their own decision was wrong or impossible.

I have heard several leave voters on television suggesting they weren't "given all the information" the excuse of the non expert through the ages. There is no acknowledgement that they went into the polling booth armed with nothing more than their own ignorance. Before the vote they thought they were experts or their opinion was of equal or even greater value than that of the experts. At the moment of putting the cross on the ballot paper they did not realise they were ignorant. They didn't question their decision or their ability to make it. But lack of self doubt is the mark of the non expert isn't it?

When it goes wrong, they will blame the experts for not giving them all the information. Not their own lack of understanding or absence of determination to find the information. No, they had to be given the right information. But decisions are easy when you are given the right information. The difficulty is going out and spending time and effort to discover the facts that will help you to understand what the right decision is. 

I have spoken to many leavers and asked if they read any of the government or treasury documents about the alternatives to EU membership and the likely cost. Not one had.

They were given the information but couldn't be bothered to read it.