An organisation called the European Business Aviation Association (EBAA) published an interesting document in January giving what they claimed were the six possible options for the kind of deal the UK will have to make with the EU on aviation matters. One of the options is no deal at all and one is the status quo. See the report HERE. None of it will make happy reading for the hard Brexiteers, although I'm sure they haven't read it and never will.
According to the EBAA, a founding Member of the International Business Aviation Council (IBAC), through which Members’ interests are represented at the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO), the options for the UK aviation industry are these:
The status quo.
We know this isn't an option because the EU have already confirmed we are out of the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) and the Open Skies agreement as of next March and retaining our existing membership does not seem at all possible/
Joining the EEA
Also unlikely. We would keep all the same aviation rights but of course we would also have to abide by all the single market rules including freedom of movement but have little say over them - not no influence at all, but far less than we have now. So not terribly attractive to the Brexiteers.
Negotiate a bilateral agreement similar to the Swiss model
This would probably be negotiated as part of a wider agreement, perhaps in an Association Agreement but Aviation would probably be regulated by one of several inter- linked bilateral agreements, most likely including free movement of persons, totally contrary to the UK negotiating position. We would again have to apply the aviation acquis interpreted in line with CJEU decisions delivered prior to the adoption of the agreement and we would lose some cabotage freedoms. So, again not particularly attractive compared to what we have now - certainly not for Brexiteers.
Join the European Common Aviation Area (ECAA)
As Serbia has done for example, but it would be contrary to the aims of Brexit because it allows for a gradual grant of market access in parallel with increasing regulatory convergence; requires acceptance of EU aviation law across all areas. There is no automatic right to join, and other EU Member States may oppose it.
Joining the ECAA is generally aimed at States that are increasing the level of association with the EU but it's a viable option; We would have to apply the full EU aviation acquis but could potentially be fast-tracked to 3rd stage under the ECAA Agreement (i.e. full access to the Single Aviation Market), effectively maintaining the status quo. UK would have no ability to shape EU legislation it is required to adopt. In other words, a rule taker.
Negotiate a completely new bilateral agreement.
Not a quick process, to say the least. We may not even have able to start until we've left and become a third country. The suitability of this arrangement is entirely dependent on what rights can be negotiated, and with how many States. But I assume we may still have to adopt the aviation acquis otherwise Switzerland and others in the ECAA will demand the same, a precedent will have been created. This is entirely unknown, with a potential hiatus after March 2019 or December 2020 if any new bilateral agreement is not ready in time.
Leave without a deal and fall back on pre existing bilateral agreements.
This is the default option that can be implemented almost immediately, but not all existing bilateral agreements may be revived. Counter parties may bargain for the exchange of some freedom rights. The success of any renegotiation is uncertain. UK-US Bermuda II Agreement is particularly restrictive, providing for single designation per route on most transatlantic routes, and restricted services to London Heathrow to two US and two UK airlines and limited 5th freedom services.
See what I mean about none of the options being particularly attractive to Brexiteers? Perhaps BoJo might eventually wish he had paid more attention to the details when he was in Brussels instead of writing humorous nonsense about non existent EU regulations on bananas.
