The Telegraph this morning are leading with a story (HERE) that the cabinet are discussing a "reserve parachute" - a sort of emergency standby deal - in case the Chequers proposal is rejected by the EU27. If I was them I wouldn't worry about IF the Chequers plan is rejected but WHEN. It has zero chance of success. But I do like the analogy of a parachute. This implies we are going down, otherwise it would have been an emergency climbing kit.
The plan, which is apparently the one originally commissioned by David Davis, is based on the EU's trade treaty with Canada and far closer to the deal that Eurosceptics want according to the report, which has obviously come either directly from Davis himself or from BoJo, who has now returned to the paper as a columnist.
"Mr Davis told the Telegraph: "When we get to October if we have got no resolution we have got a real-time problem. If there exists an off-the-shelf and fully written-up treaty - a complete legal text - we can then go round to the European states and say this is much better than no deal.
"I called it the reserve parachute. It's ready to go. It would be attractive to European countries wanting to avoid no deal and losing the £39 billion Brexit divorce bill."
"The fallback option would eliminate tariffs and rely on a system of "mutual recognition" of standards on manufactured goods, as opposed to the Chequers compromise which ties the UK to the EU's rules on goods".
If I was a cabinet member, I would check the reserve chute before using it because they will find it has a big hole in it. None of the FTAs ever signed by the EU have "mutual recognition of standards". This is how I know the report comes from Davis. He has never understood the difference between mutual recognition of "conformity assessments" and mutual recognition of "standards" and is always confused by them.
Mutual recognition of standards is a privilege used by member states for trade between each other in the absence of a harmonised standard. It does not and cannot extend to third countries.
Mutual recognition of conformity assessment is simply bodies in the EU and each country which assess products for conformity with each others separate standards. It does not mean border checks are eliminated and so the Irish problem still needs to be resolved.
But what did Mrs May say about this in her Florence Speech (HERE) on September 22nd last year?
"As for a Canadian style free trade agreement, we should recognise that this is the most advanced free trade agreement the EU has yet concluded and a breakthrough in trade between Canada and the EU.
But compared with what exists between Britain and the EU today, it would nevertheless represent such a restriction on our mutual market access that it would benefit neither of our economies".
So much for getting "frictionless trade".
And do you remember Barnier's so called stairway to Brexit, published last December? It's HERE. Note the option that he logically came to, guided by our red lines, is a Canada style FTA. What have we been doing for eight months? The red lines the government painted for itself always pointed to this outcome, the one which is now being talked about as the "reserve parachute".
I thought we were booked first class on the latest A380 on our journey out of the EU? Now we're strapping on reserve parachutes. OMG!
